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Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...
An upper low and attendant trough will migrate east across the
Southwest on Tuesday, allowing a band of enhanced southwesterly
mid/upper flow to overspread the region. At the surface, a weak lee
low and surface trough will develop from western KS through far west
TX. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper
Midwest southwestward through northern KS. This boundary will sag
south and east through the period. Southerly low-level flow across
the warm sector between these features will maintain mid 60s to low
70s F dewpoints across much of the southern Plains into KS and the
Lower MO Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
modest across the Plains, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s will
support moderate destabilization of the very moist airmass, with
MLCAPE of 1250-2000 J/kg common from parts of northwest TX into the
Lower MO Valley.
Capping is expected to erode by mid to late afternoon, and isolated
to scattered convection is expected by 00z near the triple point and
northeast along the cold front into the Lower MO Valley. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough across
portions of western TX during the evening as a southwesterly
low-level jet strengthens. Vertically veering wind profiles and 40+
kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells
capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Where
low-level SRH is maximized near the triple point and surface front,
a tornado or two also could occur. As the low-level jet increases
and expands northward overnight, additional thunderstorm development
is expected along and north of the surface front from the Lower MO
Valley into northern IL. This activity may tend to be elevated on
the cool side of the surface boundary and pose a risk for marginal
hail and gusty winds. If convection along the surface can maintain
near-surface based character, damaging wind potential could be
greater across parts of MO/IL, but this scenario is uncertain.
...Western NY...
An upper shortwave trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase
across the Lower Great Lakes vicinity as this occurs, and a surface
low will spread eastward across the region. Ahead of an
eastward-developing cold front, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints
are forecast. While a moist airmass will reside across the region,
early day clouds and showers/thunderstorms will result in
questionable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient
destabilization can occur, a few strong thunderstorms could develop
within the moist and strongly sheared environment, posing a risk of
locally gusty winds.
..Leitman.. 10/12/2026
