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Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Southeast on
Tuesday.
...Southeast...
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Midwest on
Tuesday, bringing modest westerly flow aloft across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will sink
southward across the Lower MS and TN Valleys into the Carolinas. Mid
60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front,
promoting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid stronger heating from parts of
MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Midlevel lapse rates and
effective shear magnitudes will remain weak, but where stronger
heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates amid 1.75-2 inch PW
values are expected. This could support sporadic strong wind gusts
within wet microbursts. Overall, severe potential should remain
limited.
..Leitman.. 09/21/2026
