Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS02 KWNS 301708
SPC AC 301706

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is forecast cover much of North America early
Tuesday morning, anchored by a closed low centered over the Lower CO
River Valley. Confluent southwesterly flow aloft will precede this
system across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Expectation is
for this upper low to gradually shift southward/southwestward
throughout the day, while becoming increasingly displaced south of
the more progressive northern stream. Cold mid-level temperatures
and persistent forcing for ascent may contribute to a few lightning
strike across southwest AZ Tuesday morning.

Stable conditions are expected farther east across much of the
central and eastern CONUS as expansive surface ridging (extending
from the central Plains through much of the OH Valley) dominates the
sensible weather. Low-level moisture will remain in place from the
central Gulf Coast into southeast GA and across FL, but warm
temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorm development. 

Showers are expected throughout the day across TX, as southwesterly
flow aloft persists atop a cold and shallow continental air mass.
Modest elevated buoyancy is possible from the TX Hill Country into
east TX, and isolated lightning flashes may occur within the deepest
convective cores.

..Mosier.. 01/30/2023