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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  

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 Forecast Discussion

  
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ACUS02 KWNS 221717
SWODY2
SPC AC 221716

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon over
portions of South Carolina and vicinity.

...South Carolina and vicinity...
A rather deep upper trough is forecast to develop over the eastern
US on Friday, with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading that
region.  Most 12z model guidance is in agreement that breaks in the
clouds ahead of the main cold front will lead to some daytime
heating/destabilization over parts of SC tomorrow afternoon. 
Forecast soundings show dewpoints in the 50sF and steep mid-level
lapse rates (500mb temperatures of -24C), along with strong
deep-layer shear.  Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in
the peak heating (20-00z) period, with the strongest cell or two
capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.  Therefore have added a
MRGL risk area to this region.

..Hart.. 02/22/2024

$$