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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

  
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ACUS01 KWNS 211609
SWODY1
SPC AC 211608

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible today over portions of
Arkansas, northern Louisiana, east Texas, and western Mississippi.

A large upper trough extends from the western Great Lakes region
into the southern Plains today, with a strong cold front stretching
from IN to TX.  This front will continue to sag southward into the
Arklatex region, where a very moist and unstable air mass is
present.  Scattered thunderstorms have already begun to develop
along the front in AR, with further development expected through the
afternoon into northern LA and east TX.  Hot and humid surface
conditions, coupled with strengthening mid-level winds and
increasing large scale forcing, may result in a few intense cells
this afternoon.  Locally damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat.  A few CAM solutions suggest a more organized cluster of
storms will persist across southern AR into northern MS this
evening, with a continued threat of isolated damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 09/21/2021

$$