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| Forecast Discussion |
Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF UTAH
INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...AND ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for severe wind gusts is expected today in Utah
into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado. Thunderstorms capable
of strong to locally severe damaging gusts are also possible across
parts of the Southeast.
...Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough
over the western Great Basin. This upper feature and an
accompanying speed max ---beginning to be sampled by the Cedar City,
UT WSR-88D VAD (KICX)--- are forecast to move northeast across UT
through early evening. In the wake of early day showers and a few
thunderstorms associated with an initial lobe of ascent, some
heating will yield steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and the development
of marginal buoyancy. As storms develop and intensify, elongated
hodographs will support a few stronger cells to be capable of
marginally severe hail. However, 60 to 75 mph gusts on an isolated
basis will likely be the primary severe hazard. This activity will
eventually move into western CO and southwest WY towards the late
afternoon/early evening with severe gusts potentially in proximity
to stronger cores and outflow.
...Southeast...
A slow-moving cold front will aid in focusing thunderstorms across
portions of the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Heating
of a moist airmass featuring upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface
dewpoints will likely result in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by early to
mid afternoon. Weak low to mid tropospheric flow will limit overall
storm vigor, but some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
probably be capable of strong to locally severe gusts and pockets of
wind damage into the early evening.
..Smith/Mead.. 09/22/2026