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Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. In central KS, a couple of strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible along/immediately ahead of a cold front early tonight, given an elongated hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and weak buoyancy. However, the expected late timing of convective initiation and dry air/subsidence aloft should tend to limit updraft strength and the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 10/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough over the West. A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight. Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding small hail risk with the strongest storms. Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing, aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a strong gust or two is possible.