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Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.
...Northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. Such forecasts
call for additional strengthening of Isaias today as it continues
generally north-northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle/far
southern Alabama.
As this scenario unfolds, eastern-peripheral rainbands will spread
northward, potentially as far east as the near-coastal western
Peninsula today, and more so toward the Florida coastal bend and
eventually broader parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southern
Alabama and southern Georgia by late today into tonight. This will
occur as inland continental trajectories are displaced/overcome by a
northward-advancing Isaias and eastward-extending maritime warm
front. Destabilization will tend to be maximized in coastal areas on
its eastern periphery, all while low-level winds/SRH significantly
strengthen over time. Rotating storms will have the potential to
produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle/nearby
northern Florida into southeast Alabama and far southern Georgia.
Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/09/2026
