|
|
Categorical Day1 0100Z Outlook
|
|
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
|
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS01 KWNS 260118
SWODY1
SPC AC 260117
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
tonight over portions of the central Gulf Coast states eastward into
Georgia.
...Central Gulf Coast into GA...
Strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow will extend from TX
east-northeastward into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states while
a trough remains over the West. A very moist/unstable boundary
layer was sampled over the central Gulf Coast early this evening
(reference the 00 UTC Slidell, LA raob). A gradual intensification
of low-level warm-air advection is expected to occur this evening
into the overnight. Coincident with this increase in forcing near a
stalled frontal zone draped over the region, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Deep-layer shear and
buoyancy profiles will favor some of the stronger storms to acquire
supercell characteristics. Given the relatively moist boundary
layer, surface-based storms or nearly surface based are expected.
An isolated risk for a tornado may develop with the stronger, more
persistently rotating storms along with a risk for large to very
large hail. A gradual coalescing of storms will probably take place
as some of the activity moves east through parts of AL into GA late
tonight into early Sunday morning.
..Smith.. 03/26/2023
$$
