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Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS01 KWNS 281936
SWODY1
SPC AC 281935
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight.
...20Z Update...
Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and the only change
made to the previous outlook was expanding general thunder
northwestward across Far West TX.
A strong storm or two remains possible across western KY/TN this
afternoon and evening, but generally weak shear and warm
temperatures aloft should keep the overall severe potential low.
Small hail also remain possible late tonight/early Friday from
eastern SD into southwest MN. Marginal environmental conditions
should keep the potential for severe hail low.
..Mosier.. 09/28/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/
...Kentucky/Tennessee...
A relatively small cluster of thunderstorms continues to persist
southeastward along the western Kentucky/Tennessee border vicinity
late this morning. These storms, and the frontal zone just to the
north, regionally reside on the southwest periphery of an upper low
centered near Lower Michigan, within a cyclonically curved belt of
moderately strong mid-level westerlies.
The midday-ongoing storms do not appear likely to produce severe
weather, although some strong storms could redevelop later this
afternoon in the same general vicinity across western portions of
Tennessee/Kentucky. This will be as the synoptic front stalls or
moves slightly southward, with outflows/differential heating on the
western edge of persistent early day convection also factors. While
a narrow zone of moderate instability will exist in this corridor
later today, mid-level height rises are expected and effective shear
should generally remain 30 kt or less. While a locally severe storm
or two cannot be conclusively ruled out late this afternoon/early
evening, the potential for organized/sustained storms is currently
expected to remain low.
...Eastern SD/far southeast ND and southwest/south-central MN...
Late tonight, low-level warm advection is expected to increase
across the region, largely in response to an approaching shortwave
trough. As a low-level jet strengthens into the region, elevated
convection is expected to develop after midnight. Forecast soundings
late tonight/early Friday suggest that some potentially strong
elevated updrafts are plausible. Small hail could occur, but the
potential for 1-inch (or greater) hailstones should remain low.
$$
