Dallasdawg.com Weather

224
FXUS64 KFWD 210837
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
237 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will increase in coverage through the morning, with the
  highest rain chances along and east of I-35. A weak cold front
  will bring an end to the rain this afternoon.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Impactful wintry precipitation is expected to begin Friday
  afternoon and will continue through Saturday night or Sunday
  morning.

- Dangerously cold temperatures will arrive on Friday, with a
  prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures expected this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 103 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Areas of drizzle/light rain are beginning to develop across
portions of the region. Showers are expected to increase in
coverage through the remainder of the night into Wednesday
morning, primarily for areas east of the I-35 corridor. There
will be a low chance for thunderstorms in Southeast Texas this
morning. Otherwise, the potential for thunder will remain low. A
weak cold front will bring an end to the rain chances this
afternoon, with clearing skies expected behind the front. Mild
temperatures will continue both today and Thursday, with afternoon
highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Most of the effects from the
cold front will be seen Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as low
temperatures will drop into the 30s across much of North Texas
and the Big Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The potential for an impactful winter storm and dangerously cold
temperatures continue to be the main highlights of the extended
period. A wintry mix is expected to begin on Friday and continue
through Saturday night or early Sunday, with a prolonged period of
sub-freezing temperatures expected this weekend into early next
week. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the entire
forecast area.

What`s Changed?

- Precipitation types are starting to come into focus with the
  latest guidance. However, timing and location of any
  transitions remain uncertain at this time.

What We Know:

- A strong cold front is slated to arrive early Friday.
  Isentropic ascent from overrunning will result in the
  development of widespread precipitation beginning early Friday
  morning, potentially continuing through Sunday morning.

- Rain is expected initially on Friday, but temperatures will steadily
  drop behind the front. As temperatures fall below freezing
  during the afternoon and evening, a gradual transition to a
  rain/freezing rain mix is expected, followed by a transition to
  a freezing rain/sleet mix from northwest to southeast. This
  transition to a wintry mix will likely begin during the early
  afternoon in our northwestern zones, in the Metroplex around mid
  afternoon, and Central Texas Friday evening/overnight.

- A warm nose will be present for much of the area, but as the
  cold air deepens beneath the warm nose Friday night into
  Saturday, much of the area will likely see a transition to
  primarily sleet. A full transition to snow is still expected
  immediately along the Red River.

- Freezing rain will likely remain the predominant precipitation type
  across Central Texas Friday night, but a transition to mostly
  sleet will likely occur on Saturday.

- Widespread wintry precipitation will continue throughout the
  day Saturday. One final round of wintry precipitation will move
  through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sleet is
  expected to be the predominant precipitation type for most of
  the area with this last round of precipitation, with the
  transition line to snow likely dipping further into North Texas.

- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected from Friday night through
  at least Monday afternoon. Most of the region has a 50-80%
  chance of remaining below freezing on Monday as well, with
  temperatures potentially not climbing above freezing until
  Tuesday afternoon. The coldest temperatures are expected Monday
  morning, with morning lows in the single digits for most
  locations. Wind chills will be coldest Saturday night/Sunday
  morning, falling to 0 to -10 degrees for most locations.

- Impacts to travel and infrastructure are possible beginning
  Friday and will likely not improve until Monday at the very
  earliest. Hazardous morning commutes will be possible through at
  least Tuesday morning.

What`s Still Uncertain:

- How quickly the transition to a wintry mix will occur on
  Friday, and how soon impacts will begin once the transition
  occurs.

- The exact timing and location of precipitation type
  transitions.

- Accumulations of snow and ice, as these will depend on when, where,
  and how quickly any transitions from freezing rain to sleet and
  snow occur.

What To Do:

- Make your preparations to your home now. Ensure you protect any exposed
  pipes, and check in with friends and family.

- Consider altering any travel plans this weekend.

- Start thinking about your plans for early next week, as travel impacts
  will likely linger into at least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

MVFR ceilings have been a bit slow to develop, but are finally
starting to overspread the region. Areas of drizzle/light rain
have also developed across portions of the area, but this
activity should shift east of the terminals over the next several
hours. IFR ceilings are expected to develop across the region
later this morning, mainly across Central Texas. In North Texas,
any IFR ceilings will likely remain more intermittent. A cold
front is expected to bring a northerly wind shift to D10 terminals
around midday/early afternoon, with frontal passage expected
around 19-20Z for KACT. South winds will continue until then,
with wind speeds remaining AOB 10 knots through the period. VFR
conditions will return with FROPA, with any low clouds clearing
through the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  39  61  42 /  30   0   0  40
Waco                63  44  65  49 /  50   0   0  20
Paris               59  37  56  38 /  60   0   0  40
Denton              62  31  59  36 /  20   0   0  30
McKinney            62  34  59  39 /  30   0   0  40
Dallas              64  41  62  43 /  40   0   0  40
Terrell             63  38  61  42 /  60   0   0  40
Corsicana           64  42  65  48 /  70   0   0  30
Temple              66  42  67  49 /  40   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       63  33  63  38 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes