| Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point. |
| D4 | Sun, Oct 01, 2023 - Mon, Oct 02, 2023 |
D7 | Wed, Oct 04, 2023 - Thu, Oct 05, 2023 |
| D5 | Mon, Oct 02, 2023 - Tue, Oct 03, 2023 |
D8 | Thu, Oct 05, 2023 - Fri, Oct 06, 2023 |
| D6 | Tue, Oct 03, 2023 - Wed, Oct 04, 2023 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
- 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
- 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
- 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
|
| POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period). |
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS48 KWNS 280842
SWOD48
SPC AC 280841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large upper trough will be centered over the Great Basin on
Sunday/D4, and is expected to move slightly eastward on Monday/D5
across the Rockies. This will result in increasing, meridional flow
aloft across the northern and central High Plains, with some models
hinting at an embedded speed max which could provide a focus for
lift mainly over the northern High Plains. However, present
indications are that instability will be marginal for any severe
storm threat, other than perhaps localized wind gusts or sporadic
hail
More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected over the central
Plains and into the southern High Plains on Tuesday/D6 as the upper
trough continues to move east. By this time, and after several days
of southerly winds, better low-level moisture should be in place in
a plume from central into western TX and KS. This may eventually
become a Slight-Risk caliber setup, with modest instability and
shear perhaps supporting a supercell risk with large hail. Run to
run model trends will continue to be monitored for a more solidified
prognostication.
..Jewell.. 09/28/2023
