Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Thu, Feb 02, 2023 - Fri, Feb 03, 2023 D7Sun, Feb 05, 2023 - Mon, Feb 06, 2023
D5Fri, Feb 03, 2023 - Sat, Feb 04, 2023 D8Mon, Feb 06, 2023 - Tue, Feb 07, 2023
D6Sat, Feb 04, 2023 - Sun, Feb 05, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 300952
SWOD48
SPC AC 300950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should eject from the southern Plains across the
lower MS Valley and Southeast on Day 4/Thursday. Latest guidance has
trended towards a slightly slower and more positively tilted
solution regarding the evolution of this upper trough. Related
surface low development now appears a bit more muted across the
central Gulf Coast states. Even with these developments, some
low-level moisture return should occur across coastal/southern
LA/MS/AL into southern GA and north FL on Thursday. Poor mid-level
lapse rates should tend to limit the amount of boundary-layer
instability that can develop across the warm sector. But,
strengthening mid-level winds ahead of the upper trough will aid in
convective organization, with strong deep-layer shear forecast. 

The main limiting factors appear to be modest instability, veered
southwesterly low-level flow, and the development of just a weak
surface low. Still, an isolated threat for damaging winds and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes may exist across this region as
thunderstorms develop and spread eastward, mainly Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night. At this point, confidence in a more
substantial severe threat is too low to include a 15% severe area,
but low/marginal severe probabilities will likely be needed for
Thursday in a future outlook if current model trends continue.

An isolated severe risk may persist into Day 5/Friday mainly across
parts of FL as the upper trough progresses eastward and a cold front
moves southward over this region. Sufficient low-level moisture
should be in place to support surface-based thunderstorms. But,
lingering uncertainties regarding the degree of instability and
convective coverage along the cold front preclude introducing a
severe area at this time. Low severe potential is evident across the
CONUS for the upcoming weekend, as the cold front should eventually
stall over the FL Peninsula.

..Gleason.. 01/30/2023