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Categorical Day3 1930Z Outlook
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Open the discussion at the Storm Prediction Center
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts.
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper low over the central US is forecast to move east
out of the Plains and toward the MS Valley Tuesday. An expansive
area of strong southerly flow aloft east of the low will stretch
from the TX Gulf Coast to the western Great Lakes. Mid-level height
falls will maintain a surface low over MN/WI. This will maintain
strong southerly surface winds, allowing 60s F surface dewpoints to
expand northward across the MS Valley. Trailing the low, a cold
front will sweep eastward, serving as a focus for isolated severe
storms Tuesday.
...Mid to lower MS Valley...
A band of thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing along the advancing
cold front and a pre-frontal surface trough/wind shift early in the
diurnal cycle. Downstream destabilization appears limited owing to
poor lapse rates and the weakening upper trough. Still, some modest
surface heating, marginally supportive deep-layer shear (30-35 kts)
and the moist environment (PWATS near 2 in.) could support some
stronger wind gusts with a broken line of storms across eastern AR,
into MS and LA Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Farther north into MO, IL and western TN/KY, buoyancy is expected to
remain quite weak ahead of the cold front. Stronger forcing for
ascent and vertical shear may maintain a low-topped and forced
frontal squall line for some time. The strong wind fields could
allow for some damaging gusts or brief tornado risk. However,
exactly how far east the line is able to be maintained is unclear
due to the weak buoyancy, increasing inhibition and cooler surface
temperatures.
..Lyons.. 11/01/2026
