Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook 0830Z Probablistic 0830Z
Current Day 3 Outlook 0730z
Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS03 KWNS 280655
SPC AC 280654

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z


Severe storms appear unlikely on Saturday.

An upper trough will amplify over the Pacific Coast States, with
height rises/upper ridging over much of the Plains and MS/OH
Valleys. Southerly winds and warming will occur over the central
Plains, with a warm front lifting north across NE, SD, IA and into
southern MN. While instability will build in this region, dry air
aloft and minimal lift through 00Z should preclude much thunderstorm
development even near the retreating boundary.

A greater chance of thunderstorms will occur overnight into northern
MN as the low-level jet and associated elevated theta-e advection
becomes focused there. Substantial elevated instability in a weak
shear environment may yield pulses of strong storms, and initial
development could potentially produce localized hail. This appears
to be a small area of potential, and therefore of low
predictability. However, low-end hail probabilities could be
required in later outlooks from far eastern ND into northern MN for
overnight strong storms. 

Elsewhere, scattered storms will be possible over parts of NM as
cooler air aloft overspreads modest moisture levels. At this time
instability does not appear to favor more than small/marginal hail
Saturday afternoon there.

..Jewell.. 09/28/2023