Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
405
FXUS64 KFWD 180732
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today.
Avoid outdoor burning as grass fires will easily ignite.
- An early season heatwave will usher in record breaking warmth
this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Today will serve as the on-ramp into a much warmer pattern across
North and Central Texas as southerly return flow persists and
surface high pressure shifts farther east. As stronger westerly
flow rides over the top of the ridge and crosses the Rockies, lee
troughing will deepen across the High Plains and tighten the
gradient enough to support breezy southerly winds by this
afternoon. Even so, moisture return will lag behind the wind
increase. With a dry boundary layer still in place, elevated fire
weather concerns may again emerge in areas along and west of I-35
where afternoon humidity falls into the 20 to 30 percent range.
High should climb into the mid/upper 70s, but even these values
may be a little conservative given the increasingly southwesterly
component in low-level flow. Wednesday night will be much milder
than the past several nights with lows in the upper 40s and low
50s amid continued southerly flow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
The larger scale pattern through late week and the weekend will
be dominated by an anomalously strong ridge expanding east across
the Southern Plains. The main forecast challenge during the
extended period becomes less about whether it will get hot and
more about how efficiently that warmth aloft will be translated to
the surface. Rising 850-500 mb mean temperatures, subsidence
beneath the ridge, and increasingly deep afternoon mixing will
favor a steady warming trend from Thursday into the weekend. In
other words, the atmosphere will be unusually efficient at turning
anomalous warmth aloft into above normal/record-breaking surface
heat across North and Central Texas. That efficiency may become
maximized particularly across the western half of the forecast
area where a subtle downslope or southwesterly low-level component
can further enhance warming, which is one reason broad blended
and MOS guidance often end up a bit too cool in these regimes.
Highs were nudged a few to several degrees warmer over the next
several days for that reason, and additional upward adjustments
may still be needed if the ridge axis noses a bit farther east or
the downslope signal becomes more pronounced.
By Friday through Sunday, the focus shifts from the general
warming trend to what will be the hottest stretch of the year so
far. While current forecasts remain below formal heat headline
thresholds, this level of heat arriving this early in the season
is particularly concerning as it is following so closely on the
heels of a late season freeze and leaves no time for
acclimatization. Both the NAEFS and ECMWF ESAT continue to
strongly support this abnormal warmth signaling the likelihood
that forecast highs could still trend further upward in later
forecasts, especially west of I-35. Rain chances remain near zero
through the period, and the lack of Gulf recovery and lack of any
meaningful precipitation signal means there is little atmospheric
or fuel moisture offset to the warming trend.
This point also matters from a fire weather perspective. Even if
winds are not particularly strong every day, conditions may become
increasingly supportive of fire spread later this week and into
the weekend as the dry pattern persists, temperatures continue
climbing, and fuels cure further. The latest update from the Texas
A&M Forest Service highlights this same concern, noting that
prolonged unseasonable heat and continued drying can create an
increasingly unfavorable fire environment even on days without a
classic wind-driven setup. That cumulative drying signal may end
up being just as important as any one day`s wind forecast. Looking
beyond the weekend, a front may approach sometime late weekend
into early next week and could eventually interrupt or at least
moderate the heat, but current guidance still offers little
indication of meaningful moisture return or appreciable rain
chances associated with this FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with only passing high cloud
cover as a ridge continues building east across the Southern
Plains. A steady southerly wind around 8 to 12 kt will persist
overnight, then increase to around 15 kt by late morning into the
afternoon as lee troughing deepens across the High Plains and the
surface gradient tightens once again. Gusts were removed from
this cycle since they should be less frequent than the earlier
forecast suggested, but conditions will still be breezy through
the afternoon at all Metroplex terminals and Waco. Winds should
then ease fairly quickly around or shortly after sunset as the
boundary layer decouples, with speeds dropping back below 10 kt
during the evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 78 51 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 73 49 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 48 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 75 51 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 79 54 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 75 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 49 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 80 48 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
