Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 272315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Convection has increased over the last hour mainly south of I-20
and this is where most of the activity should be confined through
the late evening hours. Our cold front has pushed well into
Central Texas and is being reinforced by several outflow
boundaries. A northward moving boundary may help ignite a few
additional storms across Lampasas, Bell, and Milam counties
through the evening. We`ll have PoPs 30-40% through the evening
with areas along and north of I-20 remaining precipitation free.

Once the boundaries settle out later tonight, a prevailing
northeast wind is expected across most of the area, but low level
warm advection may help generate a new scattering of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into early Tuesday morning mainly
across our far western counties where we`ll have 20% PoPs.
Otherwise, rain chances will gradually diminish across the region
Tuesday afternoon into the evening. High temperatures will
continue to be near normal in the lower 90s across the region.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 413 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

Temperatures will be gradually warming up as we head into the
second half of the work week. Thankfully, however, only a handful
of locations should see triple digit heat, with the rest of the
area in the upper 80s to 90s each afternoon. Southerly flow should
finally return on Thursday, resulting in an increase in low-level
moisture across North and Central Texas. This will occur about
the same time an area of low pressure nears the Texas coast and
begins a slow migration inland. This system will likely bring
several chances for rain late this week and over the weekend,
especially across Central Texas where lift and moisture will
align the most optimally. However, where this system tracks will
ultimately determine who sees rain over the next several days and
who does not. While severe weather is not expected, rich column
moisture will increase the threat for heavy rainfall. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as we get closer to the busy
holiday weekend.

As the system departs the area late this weekend, we should see a
mostly dry day on Sunday with temperatures returning to the 90s
area-wide. Hot summer weather will be back in full swing just in
time for Independence Day, with highs ranging from the 90s to
near 102 degrees.



/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with a northeast wind through the period in the
Metroplex with no significant aviation concerns expected.

Farther south, Waco will contend with scattered thunderstorms
through this evening and we`ll have a TEMPO through 2Z for TSRA.
The bulk of the activity will continue to slide southward into
Central Texas late tonight with a northeast wind prevailing on
Tuesday with VFR.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  71  95  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                74  93  70  96  73 /  20  10   0   0   5
Paris               64  87  64  91  68 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              68  91  66  94  71 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            66  89  66  93  71 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              73  92  72  95  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             68  92  67  96  71 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  94  70  96  73 /  20   5   0   0   0
Temple              72  93  69  96  72 /  30  20   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       69  92  67  97  69 /  10  20   5   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion