Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
023
FXUS64 KFWD 272344
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return late Friday
through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail are also
possible on Saturday, mainly in Central Texas.
- A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday
into early Sunday bringing the coldest weather of the season so
far from Sunday through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning
will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s.
- Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The
potential for any light sleet or freezing rain continues to
decrease. No impacts are expected, even if a brief window of
wintry precipitation does occur.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
A chilly but pleasant Thanksgiving Day is unfolding across the
region. Morning clouds are clearing out, allowing sunny skies to
return to the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 50s to
mid 60s this afternoon with light winds. Southerly winds will
return late tonight into Friday morning, resuming a warm/moist
advection regime across the region. As a result, cloud cover will
overspread the area again overnight and will continue to
increase/thicken throughout the day Friday. Given the expected
dense cloud cover tomorrow, high temperatures were lowered
slightly, with temperatures only warming in the 50s to low 60s
tomorrow afternoon. A shortwave trough will approach from the
west during the afternoon, with a few showers developing across
our western zones as it nears the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
A secondary shortwave will move into the area Friday night into
Saturday which will bring an increase in shower activity
overnight. Instability will also increase overnight, resulting in
the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
region. Any stronger storms that are able to develop would be
capable of producing small hail, but the potential for severe
weather will be very low. Latest guidance suggests there may be a
decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday morning,
followed by another increase in showers and storms during the
afternoon for areas along and east of I-35 as a strong cold front
moves into the region. By the afternoon, MUCAPE may be on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of Central and East Texas.
Combined with sufficient deep layer shear and marginally steep
lapse rates, there will continue to be a threat for scattered
strong storms during the afternoon. An isolated severe storm can`t
be completely ruled out across Central Texas. However, the severe
weather potential will be higher to our south and east. Hail and
damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with any strong or
severe storms. All showers and storms will exit to our south
Saturday night as drier air is ushered in behind the cold front.
Aside from the rain chances, the weekend cold front will usher in
the coldest air of the season so far. High temperatures will only
be in the 40s behind the front Sunday through Tuesday, with
overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night and
Sunday night. Very cold wind chills in the mid teens to mid 20s
are expected Sunday morning due to breezy/gusty north winds, so
ensure you bundle up before heading out the door. The coldest
temperatures are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, with
nearly all locations expected to see freezing temperatures as lows
bottom out in the 20s to low 30s. Rain chances are still expected
to return to portions of the region on Monday as an upper trough
sweeps through the Southern Plains. The potential for any wintry
precipitation continues to decrease, as most of the precipitation
will occur during the day Monday when temperatures are above
freezing. Latest guidance continues to trend a bit more
progressive with this system, with rain chances likely ending
prior to the sub-freezing temperatures Monday night. Fortunately,
even if the two do overlap and we see a brief window of wintry
precipitation, precipitation would be very light and temperatures
will not be cold enough for any impacts.
Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures are expected to
rebound into the 50s and 60s. Rain chances may return during the
second half of the week, along with the potential for another
cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Light easterly (generally varying from ENE-ESE, though sometimes
variable) winds will prevail through the rest of today. Wind
directions will gradually return out of the southeast by daybreak
tomorrow as high surface pressure exits to our east. A storm
system and surface low will approach the region from the west
tomorrow, bringing strengthening southeast winds and increasing
lower VFR cloud cover. As cloud cover and moisture increase,
light precipitation echos may occur on radar, but most of this
will likely only manifest as virga due to dry air below the cloud
deck. Have not included any -RA or -SHRA at this time due to
uncertainty on anything hitting the ground. Better chances for
impactful precipitation and MVFR cigs will occur after the 30
hour TAF period, but have introduced VCTS and MVFR cigs beginning
at 05Z at KDFW to account for the eastward expansion of showers
and storms from our west tomorrow night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 42 57 50 69 / 0 10 80 70
Waco 41 59 53 74 / 0 10 70 60
Paris 36 57 44 61 / 0 0 90 90
Denton 37 55 47 69 / 0 10 80 60
McKinney 38 56 48 67 / 0 10 90 80
Dallas 42 57 49 71 / 0 10 80 70
Terrell 38 58 48 68 / 0 10 80 80
Corsicana 42 61 53 71 / 0 10 70 80
Temple 41 61 55 75 / 0 10 60 50
Mineral Wells 38 58 49 75 / 0 20 60 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
