Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 252237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Sunday/

A pleasant evening is unfolding across North and Central Texas, as
clear skies and warm temperatures in the 70s prevail. Wind speeds
will continue to decrease over the next few hours as winds shift
back out of the south later this evening. Clear skies and light
winds overnight will make for optimal cooling conditions, with
temperatures bottoming out in the low 40s in some of our cooler
spots, and mid 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

On Sunday, a front currently stalled near the Texas Gulf Coast
will retreat northward as a warm front throughout the day. Showers
and isolated storms may accompany the front as it moves into
Southeast Texas, and some of this activity could skirt our
southernmost counties where low (20%) PoPs have been maintained.
Another warm day is anticipated across the region under mostly
sunny skies; however, the warmth won`t feel quite as pleasant, as
moisture will return to North and Central Texas ahead of a cold
front set to arrive Sunday night (details in the long-term
discussion below).



.LONG TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023/
/Sunday Night through Saturday/

A fairly fast, progressive upper level flow regime will prevail
across the Southern Plains through next week. This will prevent
any huge temperature swings, while providing at least a couple of
opportunities for precipitation. The system next Thursday/Friday
will be the main player during the period, offering the
possibility of renewed strong thunderstorm activity.

A cold front will move southward through the forecast area on
Monday, hanging up over Central Texas by late afternoon. The
combination of some modest isentropic ascent north of this
boundary, coupled with a weak, fast-moving upper level trough will
result in some shower and isolated thunderstorm development late
Monday through Monday night. Kept low chance PoPs across the
eastern zones during this period. Lift and moisture convergence
are not great with this system. Consequently, QPF amounts should
remain relatively light, and most precipitation should
diminish/move east of the area by daybreak Tuesday.

Following a couple of mild, partly to mostly sunny days Tuesday
and Wednesday, the next system of note will start to take shape
Thursday. Still a great deal of uncertainty with the evolution of
this system, and confidence in the last 3 days of the forecast is
not high. The GFS brings a healthy upper trough into the Southern
Rockies by late Thursday, and ejects this feature across the
Central Plains on Friday. The ECMWF adopts a similar evolution,
but is about 12 hours slower in moving the trough out of the
Rockies across the Plains. The GFS is a bit more aggressive in
depicting a dryline to our immediate west Thursday afternoon,
while the ECMWF doesn`t really bring a similar boundary to our
doorstep until Friday.

Both sets of guidance suggest the development of large-scale
isentropic ascent across the region Thursday, continuing through
Friday. Have accordingly kept chance PoPs going areawide both
days. Believe we`ll see a combination of showers/isolated
thunderstorms in the large open warm sector over North Texas,
with scattered stronger storms possible ahead of the dryline
Thursday evening - and possibly even Friday evening if the slower
Euro verifies. The GFS depicts a decent amount of CAPE and shear
Thursday afternoon/evening, so the development of isolated severe
thunderstorms ahead of the dryline is not out of the question.
Still considerable uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of this
next system, and as mentioned earlier, confidence is not high at
the moment regarding the latter portion of the forecast.

A cold front should penetrate North Texas from the north early
Saturday, resulting in a slight cool down during the first half of
next weekend.



/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail at all terminals through the period. West winds
will continue to diminish over the next few hours, eventually
decreasing to 5 knots or less later this evening. Variable winds
will be possible for a few hours overnight, particularly across
D10, until southerly winds are established later Sunday morning.
A cold front will arrive in the Metroplex during the extended TAF
period (around 00Z or so Monday), with a north wind near 10-15
knots expected behind the front.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  80  50  73  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                49  83  53  76  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               47  76  47  70  49 /   0   0   0   5  20
Denton              43  78  45  70  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
McKinney            45  79  47  71  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dallas              50  81  50  73  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
Terrell             49  79  52  74  51 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           52  82  55  77  55 /   0   5   0  10  30
Temple              50  82  55  80  55 /   0   5   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       45  81  46  73  46 /   0   0   0  20  10




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion