Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
955
FXUS64 KFWD 182338
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday as a cold front moves into and stalls across the
region. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms are
possible both days.
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue
the rest of the week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will
be possible but the severe weather threat appears low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
A warm, humid, and windy afternoon is underway across North and
Central Texas as strong southerly flow continues ahead of a
dryline to our west and a cold front moving into the Southern
Plains. The special 18Z sounding still shows a sizable cap in
place, which should suppress most convective attempts through this
afternoon. Increasing broad-scale lift may still allow an
isolated shower or storm to develop away from the dryline, similar
to what occurred yesterday, but the dryline remains the better
focus for any more sustained convection late this afternoon and
early evening. Any storm that develops should remain isolated,
with steep lapse rates supporting some hail potential and
collapsing cores capable of producing strong downburst winds.
The cold front will move into North Texas Tuesday morning,
reaching the I-20 corridor around midday and Central Texas by late
afternoon or early evening. Showers and storms should increase in
coverage along the front as it moves into a moist and unstable
airmass, with the highest rain chances gradually shifting south
and east through the day. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary severe hazards, with the overall intensity tied to how
much instability can build ahead of the boundary and how much
influence any prior outflow has on the frontal zone. Activity
should gradually diminish from north to south Tuesday evening as
the front settles into Central Texas, with cooler air filtering
into North Texas behind the boundary.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The front will slow and become draped across Central or Southeast
Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday while southwest flow persists
aloft. Showers and storms will remain possible near and north of
the boundary, but Wednesday currently looks like a relative
minimum in rain chances for much of North and Central Texas as the
better forcing and deeper moisture convergence focus farther east
and southeast. PoPs will remain in the forecast area-wide, but
the highest coverage should favor East Texas and Southeast Texas
during this period. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the
front, with clouds and scattered precipitation keeping many areas
near or below seasonal normals through midweek.
Rain and storm chances should increase again on Thursday as a
compact shortwave embedded in the southwest flow pivots across
Central Texas while the remnant frontal zone remains nearby. This
setup should provide a better overlap of ascent, moisture, and
boundary-focused lift, supporting another round of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather potential appears
limited by weaker shear and less favorable instability compared to
Monday and Tuesday, but locally heavy rainfall will become a
greater concern. This will be a cumulative rainfall event, and by
Thursday the earlier rounds of rain may begin to moisten the top
layer of soils enough to lower runoff thresholds, especially where
storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
Periodic rain and storm chances will continue Friday into the
holiday weekend as additional weak disturbances move through the
persistent southwest flow. The placement of the old frontal zone
and any convective outflow boundaries will continue to drive the
location of the heaviest rainfall from day to day, keeping
confidence lower in the exact corridor of higher totals. The
overall pattern supports beneficial rainfall for many areas, but
localized flooding concerns may increase where repeated rounds
occur, particularly across Central Texas, East Texas, and the
Brazos Valley. Severe weather potential should remain low late
week into the weekend, with locally heavy rain and occasional
lightning becoming the main concerns.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Gusty southerly winds at the TAF sites will continue to gradually
decrease in intensity over the course of this evening, though
sustained speeds will remain between 15-20 KT through the
overnight period. Similar to this morning, another surge in MVFR
stratus is expected to blanket the airports between 06-07Z and
will linger through the morning before eventually lifting and
scattering back to VFR closer to 18-19Z.
Flying conditions will get a bit hairy over tomorrow afternoon
and evening as showers and storms develop near and along an
incoming cold front. Pre-frontal showers and storms may develop a
couple hours prior to FROPA and the main line(s), closer to 17Z,
but exact coverage and location of this initial development is
still uncertain enough to forego inclusion in the TAF.
Nonetheless, storms will begin to enter the D10 airports around
18Z, with highest impacts from TSRA (MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and
vis as well as erratic, gusty winds and lightning) expected
between 19-23Z. ACT will observe storms a few hours later, with
VCTS beginning closer to 22Z and higher TSRA impacts around
23-03Z. Eventually, storms will push south of the D10 sites
around 00-01Z, with easterly-northeasterly winds prevailing the
rest of the extended TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 86 68 81 / 10 90 50 60
Waco 75 86 69 81 / 10 80 70 70
Paris 73 83 66 79 / 10 90 70 70
Denton 75 85 66 79 / 10 90 50 60
McKinney 73 85 67 80 / 10 90 50 60
Dallas 75 87 69 82 / 10 80 50 70
Terrell 73 86 67 81 / 10 90 70 70
Corsicana 76 89 71 83 / 10 90 70 70
Temple 76 88 70 82 / 10 60 80 70
Mineral Wells 73 86 64 79 / 10 80 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
