Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 102352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
552 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

/00z TAFs/

Concerns and challenges: Lingering, patchy MVFR cigs in Central
TX may affect Waco off/on through 03z this evening. Same with low
VFR cigs AOA FL030 near and just east of KDAL/KGKY.

Residual moisture resides on the shallow frontal inversion across
Central TX. As we await the drier air to entrain into that area,
periodic MVFR cigs may occur at Waco Regional Airport through mid
evening. Otherwise, mid-high level moisture associated with a mid
level trough moving east across the region will provide clouds
between FL150-250 moving SW to NE across the airports this
evening. Otherwise, VFR at all airports. Hydro lapse rates at
Waco by 12z may allow for some 4-5SM BR conditions for a few
hours before being mixed out by increasing ESE/SE winds near 10
knots after 15z Wednesday. The surface airmass at DFW Metro
airports should be too dry for any Vsby/BR concerns.

A 1030mb surface high pressure center will continue to settle
across the AR-LA-TX area and E TX, before shifting east toward the
Lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Current NE winds around 5 knots will
become calm overnight; before becoming ESE/SE 8-10 knots after 15z



.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will not be as
cool compared to what we expect tonight. Radiational cooling will
allow for temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 30s, with a
calm to light wind in place.

An upper level shortwave will be making its way into the region
Thursday, but with little moisture to work with, no precipitation
is expected. The only effects of the passing shortwave will be
increased cloud cover during the day, as well as increasing
southerly winds in the afternoon. The southerly winds are expected
to continue into Thursday night and Friday, leading to a slight
warm up for much of the region. Temperatures Friday and Saturday
will be running anywhere between 2 to 10 degrees above average for
this time of the year. Low temperatures each day will range from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

The next cold front is slated to start moving through the region
Sunday through Sunday night, ushering in another round of below
normal temperatures for the start of the new work week. As the
front makes its way through the region, there is fairly good
consensus that a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible. Weak instability will likely preclude the development of
strong thunderstorms, but this will continue to be monitored
through the rest of this week.

All rain is expected to exit the region throughout the day on
Monday as dry air intrudes from the north. Temperatures are also
expected to remain on the cool side with below normal highs Monday
and Tuesday. Highs will likely range from the mid 40s to the mid
50s both days.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

/Through Wednesday Night/

The main concern in the short term forecast period will be
lingering light rain and possible patchy freezing fog on Wednesday
morning. At this time, the potential is very low and will be
relegated to parts of Central Texas. Otherwise, cold conditions
will persist this afternoon and into the nighttime period. Below
normal temperatures are also anticipated on Wednesday though it`ll
be less gloomy with mostly sunny skies.

The upper level trough responsible for this morning`s light rain
with intermittent sleet continues to churn across the Permian
Basin. With this feature a little slower, mid and upper level
ascent will continue to overspread the area. While I expect that
the radar scope will remain quite illuminated this afternoon, dry
air advection at the surface will likely keep rainfall amounts
very light (just a few hundredths of an inch of additional rain
expected). For most locations, only virga is anticipated. The
lingering ascent will delay the erosion of cloud cover and I`ve
slowed the clearing line by a few hours. This should mean the raw
and unpleasant conditions will continue this afternoon with most
areas struggling to get out of the upper 30s and low 40s. The
exception may be across western North Texas where late day
clearing and thus diabatic heating may be enough to allow
temperatures to climb a little higher into the mid 40s.

For tonight, mostly clear skies, calm winds and large
temperature-dew point temperature spreads will allow for ideal
radiational cooling as the main trough axis aloft translates
eastward. The previous forecast remained well below the model
consensus for MinT`s and I see no reason to deviate from that
based on the expected conditions. Most areas will fall down below
freezing with some locations west of I-35 falling into the low
20s. The recent rainfall may promote the development of some
patchy freezing mist/fog...mainly across Central Texas. At this
time, confidence isn`t high enough to include in the worded
forecast, but this will need to be monitored closely.

Wednesday won`t be quite as cool---though still below normal---
and with ample sunshine, the 50s will actually feel much more
pleasant compared to today. Northeast winds will be replaced with
southerly flow as upstream lee-side trough commences.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    29  53  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                29  55  32  58  38 /   5   0   0   0   5
Paris               28  52  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              26  53  33  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            27  53  33  54  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              29  54  34  56  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             29  55  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           30  54  33  57  39 /  10   0   0   0   5
Temple              30  55  32  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       25  53  32  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0





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