Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
838
FXUS64 KFWD 291828
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with highs mainly
in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index values near 100 to
105 degrees.
- Breezy south winds will continue today with frequent gusts near
30 mph.
- Rain chances may return Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
A seasonably hot, but breezy day across North Central Texas as we
remain under southerly low-level flow. Under longwave upper-level ridging,
high temperatures today are expected to remain in the upper-90s,
with heat indices peaking in the 100-105 degree range. Conditions
are expected to stay below advisory criteria thanks to diurnal
mixing of a shallow moist layer, keeping surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s. As there is substantial lee troughing to our north and
west, this has resulted in stronger gradient flow and therefore
peak gusts of 30-35 mph throughout the DFW Metroplex, which also
kept overnight temperatures rather mild in the upper 70s to low
80s. The thermal low to our north will begin to translate off to
the north and east this evening, therefore we can expect southerly
winds to decrease to 5-10 mph. While this may allow for more
effective radiative cooling and slightly cooler overnight lows in
the mid to upper 70s, lighter winds may exacerbate the muggy
conditions as dewpoints begin to increase into the low 70s into
the evening yielding another uncomfortable night.
Tuesday will also feature mostly dry conditions with much calmer
southerly winds relative to today. We can expect high
temperatures to again remain in the upper-90s with heat indices in
the low 100s. Other than the potential for a few low clouds around
and shortly after sunrise, can expect mostly clear skies and
another seasonably hot day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Mid level ridging will prevail through the end of the week
resulting in continue hot and dry conditions. While the center of
the ridge axis will initially be over the eastern CONUS, this will
flatten a bit an reposition back to the southwest by Friday. This
should allow temperatures to climb a few degrees to near 100 by
Friday and Saturday. Deep boundary layer mixing should continue
through the week which will allow dewpoints to fall into the upper
60s each afternoon. This should generally keep us below heat
advisory criteria with daily heat indices in the 102-105 degree
range. There is a continued signal that a weak upper trough will
manage to work southward into the Southern Plains late Saturday
into Sunday with some low storm chances expected areawide Sunday
afternoon. Increased cloud cover and scattered storms should
result in highs several degrees cooler than Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Primarily VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at
all terminals, with the potential for brief MVFR cigs mainly at
KACT where high resolution ensemble guidance is indicating low-
level RH values > 90%. Have high enough confidence at this
terminal to issue a TEMPO group from 08-11Z to highlight low
clouds, though these should begin to mix out shortly after sunrise
and mostly clear skies through the end of the TAF period. As for
winds, expect a decrease in gusty conditions as we head into the
evening hours. Gusty southerly winds peaking at 25-30 knots will
persist through this afternoon before weakening below 10 knots
before 06Z.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 97 79 98 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 94 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 93 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 76 96 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 95 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 78 96 79 98 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 94 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brauer
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Brauer
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
