Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
935
FXUS64 KFWD 110043
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
643 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorms will affect most
of the area from Tuesday into Wednesday. The highest rain totals
of around two inches will occur east of the I-35 corridor.
- A reinforcing cold front will arrive on Wednesday with much
colder weather expected on Thursday. All precipitation is
expected to end prior to temperatures falling below freezing.
- Temperatures will slowly rise on Friday and Saturday with a low
chance for showers and isolated storms across East Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Isentropic ascent atop the cool surface airmass is resulting in an
uptick in drizzle and light rain development early this evening.
This trend will continue overnight into tomorrow morning, when
precipitation is expected to become more convective in nature with
a few lightning strikes possible. Other than some refinements to
PoPs based on latest guidance, the precipitation trends from the
previous forecast largely remain unchanged from the details
discussed below. With this update, some fog and lowered
visibilities were introduced, and a period of dense fog is
possible late tonight into Tuesday mainly west of I-35 on the back
edge of the departing precip. Temperatures will remain steady for
the next 36 hours with readings mainly in the 40s.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/
A cold and dreary day continues throughout the region thanks to a
shallow cold airmass that will remain in place through the day on
Wednesday. Temperatures today will stay in the 40s across all of
North Texas and part of Central Texas. Lower 50s can be expected
across the Brazos Valley. Given the shallow nature of the front,
elevated warm air advection continues to produce bouts of light
rain showers and drizzle. This will likely continue to be the case
through the rest of today.
Heading into tonight, mid-level height falls will commence as a
disturbance inches closer to our region. This will lead to a
blossoming of rain showers Tuesday morning with a few embedded
thunderstorms. Although a few heavy rain showers are possible, the
overall flooding threat will be low thanks to the more isolated
nature of the heavy rain. Rainfall averages will likely remain
below an inch and a half through tomorrow evening.
As one disturbance moves off to the east, a secondary disturbance
will approach our region tomorrow night into Wednesday morning,
reigniting the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Similar to Tuesday, the heaviest precipitation will likely fall across
eastern Central Texas with an additional half to three quarters
of an inch of rain possible. Between the two rounds of
precipitation, most likely rain amounts will range from about
three quarters of an inch to two inches of rain. The heaviest
rain totals will be south of the I-20 corridor and east of I-35.
Wednesday`s daytime temperatures will vary greatly from north to
south as the cool airmass currently in place begins to modify. A
near-surface low will migrate eastward, leading to a rapid wind
shift out of the south/southeast Wednesday afternoon, This sill
lead to temperatures in the lower 70s across Central Texas.
Meanwhile, those along the Red River west of I-35 will remain in
the lower 40s. Any small shift in the path of the low will impact
just how far north the warm-front advances prior to the arrival of
the next cold front. Our next front should be entering our
northern counties closer to sunset Wednesday and continue moving
south through all of North and Central Texas through the rest of
the evening/night. For additional details, see the long term
discussion below.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 216 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onwards/
The extended period can be best described as a temperature roller
coaster as a warm, maritime tropical airmass will be in direct
competition with an cold, continental polar airmass. Any chances
for precipitation will hold off until the weekend when our next
weather system will bring about a medium chance for showers.
We begin the long term forecast with the arrival of arctic air
across North and Central Texas. Temperatures overnight Wednesday
through Thursday morning will fall into the lower to mid 20s
across the Red River and for portions of North Texas, with Central
Texas falling into the upper 20s and low 30s. Wind chills will be
cold, even for February! Across the region, wind chills will
plummet into the teens through Thursday morning. All precipitation
will have come to an end well before the arrival of this cold
air, precluding any chances for impactful winter weather. A sleet
pellet or two cannot be totally ruled out, so perhaps you`ll be
the lucky (or not so lucky, depending on your perspective) person
to see that! Given warm surfaces and drier air infiltrating the
region, precipitation-free weather conditions will prevail through
the rest of the week. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to
climb out of the 30s and 40s, with wind chills barely above
freezing for the entire day. Temperatures will fall through
Thursday night into Friday morning, ranging anywhere from the mid
20s to the mid 30s. Winds will become southerly through Friday
and Saturday, allowing temperatures to quickly rise back into the
60s and 70s. Rain chances will return to the forecast across
portions of East Texas, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or
two along our border with Shreveport. This relatively mild weather
will be short-lived as another arctic intrusion will attempt to
push south into our region. All precipitation will end by the
time this second push of arctic air settles in, once again
precluding winter weather chances. Of course, this portion of the
forecast will need further refinements through the coming days.
Reeves
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail through the entire period. Light
rain and drizzle is beginning to increase in coverage early this
evening, and will overspread all TAF sites overnight into Tuesday
morning. A few lightning strikes cannot be completely ruled out,
particularly around 10-14z, but occurrences should be quite scarce
thus none will be indicated in the TAFs at this time. The main
round of precipitation will shift southeast of the airports around
midday or early afternoon, with occasional drizzle occurring
afterwards. Following perhaps some small improvement to cigs (near
or above 600 ft), they are expected to return to LIFR at 200-300
ft late Tuesday afternoon/evening while visibilities also likely
fall to around 1 mile or less.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 42 46 44 56 25 / 100 90 80 30 0
Waco 47 49 49 64 29 / 100 100 80 10 0
Paris 37 45 41 53 25 / 100 90 80 80 0
Denton 39 45 41 52 22 / 100 80 80 30 0
McKinney 41 46 43 54 24 / 100 90 80 40 0
Dallas 43 47 46 56 26 / 100 90 80 30 0
Terrell 42 47 46 59 26 / 100 100 90 50 0
Corsicana 47 49 49 64 30 / 100 100 90 30 0
Temple 47 51 51 72 30 / 90 90 80 10 0
Mineral Wells 42 45 41 54 22 / 100 80 80 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
