Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 031245 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
745 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Just a minor update to account for a slightly faster cold front
movement which is now moving into the northwest Metro and I-20 in
the West, Red River Valley in the East. Areas of drizzle and light
fog are also present in advance of the cold front, so that as well
has been added. Gusty northwest winds and a 15-20 degree cool down
will happen within an hour or little more behind the cold front,
as evidenced by the 40s behind the front, 60s ahead of it. Be sure
to not be fooled by warm temperatures if you must venture out this
morning for work or essentials.

05/

Previous Discussion:
Update:
The cold front was entering into the northwest zones as of 5 AM
CDT, slightly ahead of schedule. This earlier FROPA time will
result in cooler daytime temperatures, especially across the
northern zones. Scattered showers and isolated storms were also
developing near the front as expected. This activity will
accompany the front as it moves southeast through the day. As
noted in the previous discussion below, the best potential for
severe storms will be across the Central Texas counties this
afternoon with the primary threats being hail and downburst winds.

Other than the slight adjustments made to the temps/
dewpoints/winds based on the current position of the front, no
major changes are needed at this time.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday Night/

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a passing shortwave will
continue moving east through the night. However, some low level
warm air advection showers will be possible through the overnight
hours along with patchy drizzle. The warm/moist air advection
along with abundant cloud cover will result in mild overnight lows
ranging from the middle 50s in the northwest to the middle 60s in
the south.

A strong cold front, currently near a line from Oklahoma City to
Lubbock, will continue surging south, reaching the northwest
zones by daybreak, the I-20 corridor by mid morning, and the
southern zones by afternoon. Lift along the front will be
sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms with the best precip chances across the Central
Texas zones in the afternoon where moisture and instability will
be the highest. Some of these storms may become severe with large
hail the primary threat. We are favoring the faster model
solutions based on the current strength and movement of the front
which will likely shift the severe weather threat south of the
forecast area before sunset.

High temperatures across most of the forecast area will likely
occur in the morning hours before the front arrives with falling
temperatures in the afternoon along with a breezy north wind.
Highs will range from the upper 50s in the northwest to the mid
70s in the south.

Although the threat for severe storms will shift south of the
forecast area by Friday evening, rain and thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight hours as isentropic lift increases
ahead of an approaching shortwave. The best precip chances will
remain across Central Texas where some heavy rainfall could result
in localized flooding.

Lows Friday night will be quite cool, ranging from the upper 30s
in the northwest to the lower 50s in the south.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

It may be early April, but Saturday`s daytime temperatures will be
closer to early February normals. Northerly surface winds will
gradually diminish, but little insolation will penetrate the dense
blanket of clouds. A passing disturbance aloft will generate
another round of rain and embedded storms on Saturday, primarily
impacting areas south of the I-20 corridor. Rich Gulf moisture
remaining above the shallow frontal layer will feed these
convective elements, but the speed of the activity overall should
limit the duration of any downpours. However, antecedent rainfall
from Friday`s frontal intrusion could enhance the flooding
potential, particularly across Central Texas, which is more likely
to be impacted by both events.

Swift zonal flow will push our chilly postfrontal surface high to
the east, and southerly winds will return on Sunday. Even without
much sunshine, many locations will top 70F Sunday afternoon. While
widespread rainfall is not anticipated, additional ripples aloft
may yield patchy showers. More widespread rainfall is likely on
Monday as a West Coast upper low initiates an extended period of
turbulent southwest flow. The influx of moisture from the tropical
Pacific will combine with Gulf moisture in the low levels to push
precipitable water values to near 2 inches across portions of
Central and East Texas.

Additional impulses will maintain rain chances throughout the
remainder of the upcoming week though these events will be
separated by rain-free interludes. Tuesday and Wednesday may be
the least rainy days of the period with southwest surface winds
pushing high temperatures into the 80s. The persistent southwest
flow aloft will continue to clutter the skies with mid and high
clouds, but adequate sunshine may filter through. Extended
guidance continues to disagree about the eventual evolution of the
upper low to our west, but its impact may begin as early as
Thursday.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 559 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/
/12Z TAFs/

Low end MVFR with occasional IFR ceilings will continue across all
of North and Central Texas today and tonight with occasional
reductions in visibility due to patchy drizzle and periods of
rain.

As of 10Z, a cold front was moving steadily southeast across
Southern Oklahoma and the Big Country of Texas. This front will
likely reach the Metroplex TAF sites between 14Z and 15Z. The
passage of the front will abruptly turn southerly winds to
northwest and increase speeds between 13 and 17 knots along with
some higher gusts. The front will also bring showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Since storm coverage will be limited, will only
carry VCTS with prevailing showers between 14Z and 19Z. Waco will
see similar cloud and precipitation trends, but the onset time
will be a couple of hours later than the Metroplex TAF sites.

Rain chances will gradually shift to the southeast with the
passing front, but MVFR to high end IFR ceilings will remain
through the night. Some post-frontal rain/storms will likely
develop as moisture is lifted over the wedge of very cool/dense
air near the surface. The best rain and storm chances will be
across Central Texas, including Waco.

79
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  44  59  53  71 /  80  30  30  20  30
Waco                66  46  59  53  71 /  80  50  50  30  40
Paris               61  45  61  53  71 / 100  50  30  20  30
Denton              61  43  59  50  71 /  80  30  30  20  30
McKinney            63  44  59  51  71 /  90  40  30  20  30
Dallas              65  45  59  53  72 /  80  30  30  20  30
Terrell             66  45  61  53  73 /  90  50  40  20  40
Corsicana           67  47  59  55  71 /  80  60  40  30  40
Temple              67  48  59  54  71 /  80  60  50  30  40
Mineral Wells       61  42  56  49  69 /  70  20  40  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/06

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion