Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
895
FXUS64 KFWD 152020
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
320 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
...New Long Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fire danger will increase again across Central Texas this
afternoon due to gusty winds and low humidity.
- Fire danger will remain elevated to critical through much of
next week, mainly west of Interstate 35.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/
/Through Sunday/
A cold front continues to move through the region a little ahead
of schedule and is roughly along a Paris-Fort Worth-Breckenridge
line based on 12 pm observations. The front is marked by a
northwest wind shift and a ~10 degree jump in dew points (which is
rather unusual for cold FROPA). Increasing wind speeds both ahead
of and behind the front will result in breezy conditions
throughout the day. Additionally, very low relative humidity is
forecast ahead of the front in Central Texas where values will
bottom out as low as 10-15%. The low humidity combined with winds
near 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph will result in a critical
wildfire threat this afternoon for the areas in which a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect until 9 pm tonight. Saturation within
the 700-500mb layer will result in some cloud cover as we head
into the afternoon. Some of these clouds will attempt to
precipitate as modest lift from a potent mid-level trough remains
overhead. However, a very dry sub-cloud layer should allow any
precipitation to evaporate prior to reaching the ground.
Therefore, some virga will be possible beneath the base of the
trough across North Texas and near the front in Central/Southeast
Texas. If any precipitation is able to reach the ground, it would
be very light.
Wind speeds will sharply decline around sunset this evening with
light winds continuing through Sunday, which will offer a nice
break from the breezy/windy conditions. A cool morning is expected
thanks to the dry air, clearing skies, and light winds with
overnight lows falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Most
locations will see slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, with
high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. While humidity will
be very low again Sunday afternoon (15-20%), the light winds will
keep the threat for significant wildfires very low.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/
By Sunday night, mid and upper level ridging will be nudging into
the Southern Plains. South to southwesterly winds at the surface
and low levels will allow temperatures to warm as we head into the
first half of the upcoming work week. Afternoon high temperatures
will peak in the 70s and 80s for most both Monday and Tuesday. A
weak mid-level shortwave disturbance will move along the
US/Canada border, spurring surface cyclogenesis on Monday. The
tightening of the surface pressure gradient will extend all the
way into the Southern Plains, allowing for breezy winds on Monday.
Tuesday will feel much of the same, though winds will be slightly
stronger. An upper level shortwave trough will move into the
Central Plains, with its surface low forming over Nebraska. With
the surface low slightly closer to our location, winds will
intensify in response. Expect sustained speeds around 20-30 mph,
with gusts up to 35-45 mph expected. As the aforementioned
shortwave swings across the Continental Divide, it will usher a
cold front south across the Plains. This front is progged to move
through the region overnight into Wednesday morning, leaving
cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s and strong northerly winds
in its wake. A Wind Advisory may be necessary for portions of
North and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be looked
at in more detail in the coming days.
The biggest concern over the first half of the week will be the
concern for wild fires across areas near and west of I-35 Monday-
Wednesday. Meager moisture will result in afternoon RH minimums
around 30% or lower, with areas in our far west dropping into the
low-mid teens. The windy conditions, warm temperatures, and
abundance of cured, dried fuels will promote an elevated to
critical fire weather concern Monday-Wednesday for the western
half of the CWA. It is imperative that you avoid outdoor burning
or any other action that could produce fire starts as they will
quickly spread. Another Fire Weather Watch and eventually a Red
Flag Warning may need to be issued in the next day or so.
Winds will eventually die down later in the day on Wednesday as
post- frontal surface high pressure slides south into North and
Central Texas. Cool conditions will last through Thursday, with
morning lows in the 30s and 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s and
70s. We`ll start to warm back up starting Friday as broad mid-
level ridging moves into the region and southerly winds return.
Friday will be another day to keep watch regarding fires. Another
shortwave disturbance will swing across the Central Plains as its
attendant surface low moves to our north. Breezy and rain-free
conditions will keep at least an elevated fire concern in our west
to close out the upcoming week.
It is at this point that guidance diverges, with the GFS having
an earlier, weaker shortwave and the ECMWF having a later, deeper
shortwave. Some ensemble members have precipitation across our
east late early Saturday, but this would ultimately be dependent
on the strength of the trough and the amount of moisture that is
drawn northward out ahead of the incoming system. With uncertainty
still high, have stuck with the NBM that has little to no PoPs
next weekend. We`ll keep an eye on this potential as we move
through this upcoming week.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/
/18Z TAFs/
A cold front is making its way through the region, with northwest
winds observed behind the front. Wind speeds have started to
increase, and this will continue for the next few hours. Sustained
NW winds between 15-20 knots with gusts near 25-30 knots are
expected through the afternoon. BKN to OVC clouds around 8 kft
will move into the region over the next few hours, and some virga
will be possible within this band of clouds between 21-02Z. Any
precipitation that develops is expected to evaporate prior to
reaching the ground.
Wind speeds will quickly weaken to AOB 10 knots near sunset this
evening. Winds will generally be out of the north/northeast on
Sunday but may be variable at times as wind speeds will be near or
just below 5 knots. VFR will continue through end of the extended
TAF period.
Barnes
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 69 48 81 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Waco 43 72 44 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 40 64 41 74 54 / 10 0 0 0 0
Denton 38 67 43 80 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
McKinney 39 66 43 78 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dallas 45 69 47 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Terrell 41 67 43 77 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 44 70 46 80 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Temple 42 75 44 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 39 72 41 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ141>143-
156>160-174.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
