Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

128
FXUS64 KFWD 080056
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
656 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence is increasing that a winter storm will bring
  impactful snowfall accumulations to northern parts of North
  Texas on Thursday.

- Most likely snowfall totals in North Texas area widespread 1-2",
  with 2-5" possible along the Red River. Central Texas will have
  closer to 0-1" with isolated higher amounts.

- Light wintry precipitation may begin as early as Wednesday
  evening west of I-35, but the main window for impacts will be
  Thursday into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast through Wednesday night remains largely unchanged as
we continue to closely monitor the impending wintry precipitation.
Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 20s throughout the
region with partly cloudy skies.

Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be fairly close to what we
experienced today. Highs will be in the upper 30s along the Red
River and mid 40s across Central Texas. Winds will be below 10 mph
out of the north through tomorrow before winds return out of the
south tomorrow night.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Winter weather will impact North and Central Texas beyond the
current short term forecast period (more specifically, late
Wednesday night through early Friday morning). See the long term
discussion below for the details on this portion of the forecast.

Late morning satellite and upper air analysis show a particularly
amplified polar jet with a high amplitude ridge across the
eastern Pacific and a broad upper level trough dominating the flow
west of the Rockies. The strong mid/upper-level jet wrapping
around the western flank of the trough will support the trough
deepening further into a closed low over the Southwestern United
States and Baja Peninsula through Wednesday evening.

At the surface, sprawling high pressure digging south into the
Central and Southern Plains will favor a (mostly) persistence
forecast for North and Central Texas today. The main difference is
the fetch of moisture from the eastern Pacific arriving via
westerly/southwesterly flow aloft. The net result of this moisture
has been scattered mid and high clouds and even some light radar
echoes streaming across the region this morning. The dry sub-cloud
layer evident on the morning sounding from Fort Worth will keep
the area precipitation-free today. Clearing and scattering of
clouds may allow afternoon temperatures to warm a degree or two
above the previous forecast, but overall afternoon highs are
expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Lows tonight will again dip into the 20s region wide despite
thickening cloud cover overnight. Wednesday will be fairly similar
to today with highs in the 30s and 40s and some scattering of
mid/high clouds. Precipitation looks to remain outside of our
forecast area until Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 410 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

We`ll start off the long term forecast with a blast of winter.
Another digging trough will move south across the western US while
the aforementioned closed cut-off low will de-amplify into an open
wave over NW Mexico and far West Texas late Wednesday into Thursday.
The wave will eventually become absorbed into the incoming trough as
they both begin to swing across the Southern Plains early Thursday,
spreading increased forcing for ascent across the region. On the
eastern periphery of the trough, increased moisture will eventually
surge northward and work in tandem with the lift to allow for a
blossoming of precipitation chances early Thursday morning. This is
a bit later than previous forecasts as recent guidance has slightly
slower system movement as compared to the last few days.

The frigid overnight temperatures will aid in a wide variety of
precipitation types, making for a continued challenging forecast. As
compared to the previous few days, the latest 12Z model runs have
come in slightly warmer, which will have implications on just where
the rain/wintry mix/snow lines will fall and snowfall totals.
Forecast soundings now show a slightly more pronounced warm nose
aloft further north towards the I-20 corridor, which will decrease
snow amounts across a good portion of the region, and will increase
confidence of light ice accumulations. As a result, there are three
big changes that have been made with this afternoon`s update: we`ve
lowered snowfall totals due to the slightly warmer temperatures both
at the surface and aloft, we`ve increased the area of possible light
ice accumulations northward, and we have pushed the wintry mix
transition line north of the I-20 corridor.

Currently, more of Central Texas will not see snowfall, especially
south of a Palestine-Beverly Hills-Copperas Cove line, though we
cannot rule out some sleet mixing in with the raindrops. Most
likely rainfall totals across North Texas up towards the US-380
corridor are between 1-2", with 2-4" possible closer towards the
Red River. Ice accumulations up to 1/10" are possible across a
majority of the region, aside from far south Central Texas where
the main precipitation type is more likely a cold rain.

All this to say, travel will become hazardous Thursday through at
least Friday morning, with impacts potentially lasting into the
afternoon hours on Friday. Roads will become slick, particularly
untreated roads and elevated bridges/roadways. Additionally, any
melting that occurs during the afternoons over the late week will
refreeze during the overnight periods, causing lingering impacts
until more substantial melting occurs.

The apex of the trough will cross our region on Friday, ushering out
the precipitation chances over the early parts of the day. Cloud
cover will be slower to exit, and highs will likely only get into
the 30s and 40s. Thankfully, we`ll see a gradual warming trend over
the weekend and into next week as highs rebound into the 40s and 50s
and lows into the mid-upper 20s into the low-mid 30s.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

Within the time bounds of this forecast cycle, a fairly tranquil
weather pattern will persist throughout North and Central Texas.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream from west to
east, leading to no impacts throughout the region. Winds will be
out of the north through 00Z Thursday before becoming light and
easterly beyond 00Z Thursday.

As we continue through the day on Thursday, low ceilings and
precipitation will make for poor flying conditions. A wintry mix
is looking most probable within the DFW Metroplex with a cold
rain at KACT. More details regarding the frozen precipitation
potential will be made available in the next 24 hours.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    24  40  30  37  32 /   0   0  10  90  80
Waco                23  44  30  37  33 /   0   0  10  90  90
Paris               20  39  24  34  30 /   0   0   5  80  90
Denton              21  40  25  36  29 /   0   0  10  80  70
McKinney            21  40  26  36  30 /   0   0  10  90  80
Dallas              25  41  30  37  32 /   0   0  10  90  80
Terrell             22  41  27  36  31 /   0   0  10  90  90
Corsicana           25  42  30  38  33 /   0   0  10  90  90
Temple              23  43  29  38  32 /   0   0  20  90  90
Mineral Wells       20  41  27  38  30 /   0   0  20  80  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141.

&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion