Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
202
FXUS64 KFWD 270452
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/
The weak upper trough responsible for the relatively cool and
unsettled weather we have been experiencing for the past week or
so will hang on one more day before it lifts to the northeast on
Sunday. Abundant moisture below 700 mb will keep plenty of clouds
around through Saturday with morning stratus and afternoon Cu.
Much like the past few days, there should be enough moisture and
lift for a few showers and storms to develop. The best chances
will be across the eastern zones during the afternoon and evening
when surface heating helps with destabilization, but a stray
shower or storm could PoP up just about anywhere and and at any
time. The good news is that limited instability and weak flow
aloft will keep all storms well below severe limits.
Temperatures tonight and Saturday will remain below normal with
lows from the upper 60s to the middle 70s and highs in the 80s to
the mid 90s. Temperatures will begin to creep upwards beginning
Saturday night with all locations staying at or above 70 degrees.
79
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
Update:
No major changes were made to the long term forecast with this
latest update. On and off rain chances have a low chance of
continuing through the rest of the weekend before drier and
hotter weather returns to North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs
will gradually soar into the upper 90s and low 100s by the end of
the week. The return of this heat may lead to the reintroduction
of heat products nearly each day as we kick off the month of
August. The reprieve from the summer heat is coming to an end.
Reeves
Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Morning Onward/
Upper level shortwave troughing and its accompanying diffuse
upper low will stay planted atop the region through the weekend,
allowing for the continuance of daily shower/storm chances and
cooler temperatures through this weekend. Like the days before,
best chances for precipitation will be during the afternoon hours,
across East and Central Texas where the more abundant moisture
content lies. Further north and west, the potential for
precipitation is there, but will be more isolated in nature. Not
everyone will receive rain on either day, but for those lucky ones
that do, you can generally expect less than 1" underneath any one
storm. However, high PWATs greater than 1.5" (up to 2" in East
and Central Texas!) will allow for bouts of heavy rain. Isolated
higher rainfall amounts of at least 1-1.5" would be plausible
within any slow-moving storm. Severe weather is not expected with
any of the weekend activity, though lightning will pose a threat
to anyone outside who finds themselves near or under a storm.
Otherwise, expect another couple of days of below-normal high
temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.
By the beginning of this upcoming week, the aforementioned upper
low is progged to move northward and become re-absorbed into the
overall mid-level flow. This will allow the longwave ridge out
west to spread east across North and Central Texas throughout the
week. Underneath the subsident airmass, expect warming
temperatures and the end of any mentionable rain chances for the
rest of the long term forecast period. Afternoon highs will
gradually rise into the mid 90s to a few degrees above the century
mark by midweek. Alongside those rising temperatures, continued
increased humidity will push daily peak heat indices into Heat
Advisory territory, ranging from 100-110 degrees. Expect a return
of heat headlines as we go into the latter half of this upcoming
week as summer returns in full fashion.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Patchy stratus, currently across East Texas, will work westward
toward the I-35 corridor overnight. MVFR to high end IFR ceilings
are expected all TAF sites overnight. Ceilings will gradually lift
during the morning hours Saturday, becoming VFR by afternoon.
A few showers and storms will be possible, especially during the
heat of the day, but the best moisture and lift will reside to
the east and southeast of the TAF sites.
A southeast to south wind will continue in the 6 to 12 knot range
along with a few higher daytime gusts.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 75 93 78 / 5 20 0 10 5
Waco 73 89 73 90 75 / 20 20 5 20 5
Paris 70 86 72 89 74 / 20 30 10 20 10
Denton 72 92 73 95 76 / 5 10 0 5 5
McKinney 72 90 73 93 76 / 10 20 0 10 10
Dallas 74 91 74 93 77 / 10 20 0 10 5
Terrell 71 87 73 90 75 / 20 30 5 20 10
Corsicana 73 88 74 91 77 / 20 30 5 30 10
Temple 72 88 72 90 75 / 20 20 5 30 0
Mineral Wells 70 94 72 96 75 / 0 5 0 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
