Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
744
FXUS64 KFWD 252348
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The fire weather conditions will remain slightly elevated again
tomorrow, but lower wind speeds will limit the overall threat.
- Warm and rain-free conditions will persist the rest of the week
with no significant rain chances through the weekend.
- There is potential for unsettled weather and decent rain chances
to return to the region towards the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Latest surface analysis show a surface low currently entering our
northwestern counties along the Red River with a dryline
extending towards West Texas. As the low pressure continues to
move southward later today, winds will shift to the north-
northeast across North Texas. Southerly winds will prevail across
Central Texas the rest of the afternoon with some occasional
gusts near 25 mph expected. Despite the presence of high clouds
across the region, temperatures will still warm into the 80s for
most locations. One exception will be areas along the Red River
where temperatures may remain in the upper 70s due to the arrival
of the north winds this afternoon.
For tonight, winds will become light and variable as the center
of the low pressure remains overhead. They will eventually become
north and northeast tomorrow morning as a weak cold front moves
along the surface low. The overnight low temperatures will range
from the upper 40s and low 50s across North Texas and 50s/low 60s
in Central Texas. Given the light winds and added moisture in the
lower-levels, we could see some low clouds and/or patchy fog
develop Thursday morning. Areas across East Texas will have the
best potential, but the western edge may approach the I-35
corridor. Conditions should quickly improve by late morning as the
northerly winds brings slightly drier air.
Fire Weather: the fire threat will remain slightly elevated this
afternoon and again tomorrow across our far southwest/western
zones due to warm temperatures and lower humidity (RH 15-20%).
Surface winds will remain less than 15 mph, limiting the fire
spread and aid in containment.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
The extended forecast continues to highlight the warming trend
over the weekend followed by a pattern change next week that
could bring our next decent chance to see some rain!
We will wrap up the month with above normal temperatures as
temperatures go from upper 70s/low 80s on Friday to widespread
80s Saturday and Sunday. Not only will it be warm, but the
humidity will also increase with the return of the breezy south
winds. Some of the extended models are showing a cold front moving
south from Oklahoma late Sunday which could bring a low chance
for rain along the Red River. However, there`s still some
uncertainty on the timing of the front which will impact both the
rain chances and the temperatures into early next week.
The good news is the upper level pattern is looking more
supportive for rain chances to spread across the region by mid-
week. A western trough is expected to develop with southwest mid-
level flow into the southern/central Plains. This should bring
plenty of large-scale lift on top of sufficient low-level
moisture resulting in at least some scattered rain across the
region. While it is too early for specifics, we could see
multiple periods of showers and storms during that mid-late week
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
A surface low is currently shifting over the western portions of
the Metroplex, therefore expect a wind shift to the north at the
D10 sites within the next hour. Light northerly winds, variable at
times, will persist through the remainder of the evening and
night. The cold front and northerly wind shift will not reach KACT
until early Thursday morning. Higher moisture on the eastern and
northeastern periphery of the surface low will likely lead to
areas of patchy fog and low cigs near sunrise Thursday morning.
The western extent of these IFR/MVFR cigs and fog is still a bit
uncertain, but confidence is growing that at least MVFR conditions
will shift into parts of Dallas County. Will continue a few-hour
TEMPO period for MVFR vsby/cigs at KDFW and KDAL between 12Z-15Z,
but it is entirely possible that most of the cigs stay east of
the Metroplex and only brief drops in visibility are observed
across eastern D10.
Beyond the low potential for vsby/cig reductions, north winds at
8-12 kts will prevail during the day Thursday across all of North
and Central Texas. A few higher gusts up to 20 kts cannot be ruled
out at KACT during the afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 55 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 54 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 49 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 51 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 55 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 54 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 59 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 55 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 49 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
