Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
291
FXUS64 KFWD 051824
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1224 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will prevail through the work week resulting in
quiet weather and above-normal temperatures.
- A weak cold front Friday night will bring night-time lows in
the upper 40s and 50s.
- A second much stronger cold front will move through Saturday
night, bringing well below normal temperatures for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
We`re still looking at a sunny, dry, but slightly warmer
afternoon across the region. Highs will peak the 80s area wide
with many locations across the west reaching the upper 80s. A
weak cold front will continue to push south into North Texas this
afternoon, but it will stall just north/northwest of the DFW
Metroplex. The south-southwest winds ahead of the front may
become breezy at times with occasional gusts near 20 mph. The
surface front will eventually wash out tonight keeping our winds
generally from the south through tomorrow. Tonight`s temperatures
will also be a few degrees warmer than the last couple of days
with lows mainly in the 50s. A few locations across the far
western zones may drop to the 40s due to light winds expected.
Another seasonably warmer day is forecast on Thursday with highs
in the 80s. The upper level ridge responsible for the stable
weather pattern will remain over the region but will begin to get
displaced as the next set of upper troughs pushes toward the
Central U.S. Southerly winds will dominate the lower levels with
breezy winds expected in the afternoon and night ahead of the
next cold front on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
The main story of the long-term continues to be the arrival of
the strong cold front late Saturday into Sunday. But before we
enjoy the nice and cool weather again, above normal temperatures
are still expected Friday and Saturday. A weak surface front will
push south on Friday but other than a northerly wind shift,
little to no effect to our sensible weather is anticipated.
The very anticipated weekend front is still expected to bring a
20+ degree temperature drop from Saturday`s highs. Most locations
in North Texas will stay in the mid/upper 50s and Central Texas
will see highs in the low 60s. Northerly winds will increase
during the day Sunday. The majority of the guidance is showing
sustained winds around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. However,
we can`t rule out occasional gusts around 30-35 mph. Cold air
advection and breezy winds will continue Sunday night into Monday
morning as surface high pressure moves in from the north. Areas
generally along the Red River to the far western zones continue to
have the best potential (40-60% chance) to see lows near or just
below freezing. Outside of those areas and any other low-lying
spot, we`re looking at lows in the mid-upper 30s. Another chilly
day is forecast on Monday with highs in the 50s to low 60s. No
rain is anticipated with the weekend system.
Temperatures will gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday as the
south winds return to the region. It`s looking like the dry
stretch will continue as no rain chances are in the forecast
through at least the middle part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
Quiet weather will continue through the period across all sites.
SKC with south-southwest winds are expected the rest of the
afternoon as a weak cold front approaches North Texas. No
significant impacts expected with this front as it will stall
just N/NW of the DFW Metroplex sites. It will eventually wash out
overnight with light winds remaining from the south-southeast.
Low ceilings will again approach the Brazos Valley region early
Thursday morning, but at this time we don`t expect any impacts at
any of our sites. VFR will continue tomorrow with south winds
increasing to around 10-13 kts in the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 82 57 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 79 55 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 82 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 81 56 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 81 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 83 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 86 52 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
