Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 230032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
732 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

/Through Wednesday Night/

North and Central Texas remain beneath an extensive blanket of
low cloud cover this evening as Tropical Depression Beta continues
to slowly move along the Texas Gulf Coast. Radar imagery reveals
light rain showers across our far southeastern counties and this
activity should continue through the evening hours. The remainder
of the region remains largely rain-free, but pockets of light
drizzle or patchy fog cannot be ruled out through Wednesday
morning. These trends should continue tonight, with the best
chances for rainfall east of the I-35 corridor as T.D. Beta slowly
moves northeast. Low temperatures tonight won`t vary much from
today`s high temperatures due to our overcast skies, only falling
into the low to mid 60s.

With the departure of T.D. Beta expected through the day on
Wednesday, a slow and gradual clearing of cloud cover is
anticipated from west to east. There are only low rain chances
across East Texas through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise,
afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer in the
low to mid 70s but remain below 80 degrees. Partly to mostly clear
skies across the Big Country and along the Red River will allow
for low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s Wednesday
night, while areas across Central Texas fall into the low to mid



.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020/
/Wednesday Night onward/

The next several days will be quiet for the most part. An upper-
level ridge will build over the western CONUS, bringing a warming
trend to our region. The upper-level ridge will keep a lid on any
precipitation chances. By the weekend, high temperatures should
climb into the 90s, and continue into early next week.

As we head into next week, a deep upper-level trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS, with the ridge intensifying over the West.
Model guidance is in good agreement that a strong cold front will
move through the Southern Plains on Tuesday (ECMWF) or Tuesday
Night (GFS). There is still some disagreement with respect to
timing, but virtually all model guidance shows the strong cold
front passage. The post-cold front timeframe is just beyond the
end of this forecast, but if the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are
to be believed, it`s possible that high temperatures could
struggle to climb out of the 70s next Wednesday, with lows
dropping into the 50s for much of our area by next Wednesday
night. In addition, dewpoints look to drop in the 40s, bringing a
very nice finish to September and start to October.



/00Z TAFs/

Concerns: IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected at all terminals through
the mid morning hours before a gradual improvement to MVFR by
Wednesday afternoon as Tropical Depression Beta exits the region.

Ceilings across the Metroplex have lifted to low end MVFR this
evening with pockets of IFR observed across some terminals. At
Waco, IFR ceilings have prevailed through the afternoon with
intermittent periods of LIFR visibility. Widespread IFR ceilings
should prevail this evening through midnight. The latest guidance
indicates ceilings should fall into the LIFR category after
midnight and persist through early Wednesday morning. Pockets of
reduced visibility below 2-3 miles will also be possible as patchy
fog develops near daybreak.

LIFR ceilings will gradually improve to IFR by the mid morning
hours to MVFR by the early afternoon hours across all terminals.
An improvement to VFR is expected sometime late Wednesday
afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, north to northeast winds
near or below 10 knots will prevail across the region.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  76  63  81  63 /  20   5   0   0   0
Waco                67  78  64  81  62 /  20   5   0   0   0
Paris               62  70  59  77  59 /  40  20   5   0   0
Denton              64  75  62  80  60 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            64  74  62  80  60 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dallas              66  76  63  81  63 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             64  75  61  81  60 /  30  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           66  75  63  80  62 /  30  10   5   0   5
Temple              67  78  63  80  61 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       64  76  59  82  58 /   5   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion