Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
625
FXUS64 KFWD 210614
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler weather is expected through the end of the week.
- Above normal temperatures return this weekend with dry weather
expected.
- Our next chance of rain arrives next Wednesday, but it`s too
soon to know specific details about Thanksgiving Day itself.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/
Surface high pressure has settled across the Texas Hill Country
leading to calm winds and clear skies. This should lead to
continued efficient radiational cooling with early morning
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Areas that are typically
cooler such as valleys or low spots may temporarily drop into the
lower 30s, however, most locations should remain above freezing.
Given the dry air atop our region and westerly to southwesterly
winds in place, temperatures tomorrow will range between the mid
60s along the Red River to lower 70s in Central Texas.
A backdoor cold front will arrive late this afternoon, returning
northerly winds to all of North and Central Texas. This front will
ensure that the northeastern counties experience overnight
temperatures in the mid 30s once again. The rest of the region is
likely to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight.
Similar to today, tomorrow will once again feature temperatures
in the lower 60s along the Red River and lower 70s across Central
Texas. Winds will return out of the south by the afternoon with
clear skies continuing.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
/Friday Onward/
A reinforcing cold front will move through Thursday afternoon,
keeping pleasant temperatures in place through the end of the
workweek. A zonal pattern with a relatively strong PFJ aligned
across the central CONUS will establish this weekend and early
next week. The result of this will be a sequence of low pressure
systems moving across the Central CONUS with a few fronts moving
across North and Central Texas next week.
Strong warm and moist advection should ramp up this weekend, with
Saturday`s high peaking in the 70s and much of the area reaching
the low 80s on Sunday. While these numbers won`t approach daily
records, our current forecast values for Sunday would be top 5 for
both Waco and Dallas-Fort Worth. Thankfully, a cold front will
move through Monday and bring a return to near-normal temperatures
early next week. Sunday will also be breezy, but below our Wind
Advisory criteria.
Almost all the guidance has next Monday`s cold front stalling near
the Gulf Coast early in the week, then lifting north as a warm
front in the middle parts of next week with increased rain
chances north of the warm front, and another cold front moving
through late in the week. The timing and other details are still
largely in-flux since the guidance has shown little run-to-run
consistency. However, there seems to be a consensus on 3 main
solutions for Thanksgiving day. Option 1 is the warm front lifts
north and the cold front doesn`t move through until Friday. This
would result in a mild Thanksgiving, but only ~15% of the guidance
has this. Most of the remaining guidance has Thanksgiving Day in
the 50s, with about half of those indicating Thursday being a
drizzly day north of the warm front and the other half indicating
the stronger cold front moving through through late Wednesday or
early Thursday. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast guidance as
it evolves in the coming days.
Bonnette
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Continued tranquil conditions are expected at all TAF sites with
VFR skies and light westerly winds. Winds will remain out of the
west/northwest through tomorrow evening before a cold front makes
it way across the region. For the D10 airspace, the cold front
will arrive around 03Z Friday, and 06Z at KACT. Behind the front,
northerly winds will return, generally under 10 knots.
Hernandez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 39 67 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 35 71 40 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 37 64 37 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 36 67 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 36 67 37 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 39 68 42 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 38 68 38 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 39 70 41 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 37 73 40 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 35 69 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
