Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
337
FXUS64 KFWD 132339
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A gradual warming trend will occur through the workweek with
above normal temperatures returning by Thursday.
- Low rain chances will return to the region on Friday.
- Arctic air is expected to arrive this weekend, with much colder
temperatures through at least the middle part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Tuesday/
Tranquil weather will prevail across North Texas tonight through
Tuesday, as a weak ridge of high pressure prevails over the Middle
and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A few high clouds, representing
some strands of higher level Pacific moisture, will stream across
the region tonight and Tuesday, but these should do very little
to inhibit raditional cooling tonight, nor the welcome addition of
solar insolation tomorrow. Another night of sub-freezing
temperatures can be expected across many of our northern and
western counties, with lower 30s the rule in the Metroplex and
the zones across the east and southeast. Mild highs in the 50s
will rule the area Tuesday.
Bradshaw
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 220 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/
/Tuesday Night Through This Weekend/
A warming trend will continue through the end of the work week
with afternoon highs returning to the 60s for many locations
Thursday and Friday. A few areas may reach into the low 70s
Friday afternoon. A disturbance near the Texas Coast could bring a
few showers into our southern zones Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise, rain chances will remain near zero for most of the
week.
On Friday, low-level winds will strengthen ahead of our next cold
front. Increasing warm/moist air advection could result in the
development of scattered showers throughout the day, but most of
this activity would be east of the I-35 corridor. The cold front
is currently slated to arrive early this weekend, with another
shot of arctic air expected behind the front. Sunday will be much
colder, and there is good agreement among ensemble guidance that
that the coldest conditions are expected Sunday night through
Monday night. While it is too early to give specific forecast
temperatures, we could reasonably expect overnight lows in the
teens and high temperatures potentially in the 20s or 30s.
Regarding the potential for precipitation, ensemble guidance is
still very split between keeping the region dry or introducing
chances for precipitation. Additionally, there are still
significant discrepancies in both timing and location of any
precipitation among the wetter members. Therefore, it remains too
early to determine if, when, or where we could see any
precipitation next week. It`s best to continue to monitor the
forecast over the next few days as these details eventually come
to light.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
VFR conditions will persist at all TAF sites tonight through
Tuesday. A light northeasterly flow will prevail this evening in
response to the presence of a weak ridge of high pressure over the
Mid Mississippi Valley. From 03-04z onward through 14z, winds
will become light and variable as good radiational cooling
and surface decoupling ensues. As the surface ridge shifts
southward into Louisiana after 14z on Tuesday, winds will veer to
a southeasterly direction at speeds of 6-9 knots.
Bradshaw
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 31 54 33 54 34 / 0 0 0 5 5
Waco 31 55 38 53 37 / 0 0 5 10 10
Paris 28 50 29 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 27 52 28 52 29 / 0 0 0 5 5
McKinney 28 53 30 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dallas 31 54 33 55 35 / 0 0 0 5 5
Terrell 29 54 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 5 10
Corsicana 32 56 37 56 36 / 0 0 0 10 10
Temple 30 56 38 53 36 / 0 0 10 20 10
Mineral Wells 28 56 31 55 30 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
