Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 090024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
624 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Evening/

An upper ridge across the Central CONUS continues to bring
overall pleasant weather to North and Central Texas. Meanwhile,
the next upper level storm system can be seen on satellite imagery
spiraling off the Northwest Coast. A couple of lead shortwaves
ahead of the system are already helping to strengthen a lee-
Rockies surface trough. This is tightening the local pressure
gradient and will continue to increase our wind speeds over the
next 24 to 36 hours. Winds will likely drop off over the next hour
or so as the sun sets, but should ramp up again by midnight as a
40-50 MPH low level jet develops. This flow will usher in a
stratus deck at or just before daybreak Tuesday, and these clouds
should linger through around midday or so.

Winds and increasing low level moisture will keep tonight`s
conditions warmer than previous nights, with lows remaining
generally in the 50s. As we get into the day Tuesday, boundary
layer mixing will bring wind gusts to around 30 MPH late morning
through the afternoon. At this time, however, it appears that we
will be just below wind advisory criteria. Fire danger will still
exist, but may not be quite as volatile as today or yesterday due
to increasing dewpoints. The proper precautions should still be
taken though due to the winds and dry vegetation. That said,
outside of the breezy conditions, another nice day is expected
with highs ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Fairly quiet weather is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday
before rain/storm chances increase the latter half of the week.
We`ll continue to monitor the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms this weekend as a strong upper level system
approaches from the northwest.

Tuesday Night through Thursday...

North and Central Texas will be wedged between an area of high
pressure across the southeastern US and a trough digging from the
Pacific Northwest. Although a compact leading shortwave will move
through the state on Wednesday, the atmosphere will remain
sufficiently capped to prevent the development of showers or
storms on Wednesday. The shortwave will help increase regional winds
out out of the south/southwest, likely leading to widespread
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s Wednesday, and upper 70s
to mid 80s Thursday.

With the persistent southerly flow aiding in the transport of
moisture into the region, there will likely be sufficient
moisture to increase the potential for a few showers across East
Texas Thursday afternoon. The threat for a rumble of thunder
remains low, therefore, storms will not be advertised at the
moment.

Thursday Night Onward...

A stalled front will be draped across Central Oklahoma and into
the Texas Panhandle Thursday night as another weak shortwave
moves from Texas into Oklahoma. Given the proximity of the front
as a shortwave moves across, a mention of showers has been added
across North Texas. With the front well north of our area, the
potential for storms will likely remain across Oklahoma through
the morning hours.

As we go into the afternoon, warm air advection showers and even
a few storms will overspread much of North Texas as the main
forcing for ascent inches closer. Strong southwesterly winds will
likely lead to a stout capping inversion around 700mb throughout
much of the region. With the inversion in place, the threat for
severe thunderstorms will remain low throughout much of North and
Central Texas. The exception will be in the far northwestern
portions of North Texas, where the front may enhance low-level
convergence and lead to a few more robust thunderstorms.

The development and deepening of a surface low is expected across
the Texas Panhandle on Saturday. With the 700mb low remaining
about 300 miles northwest of the surface low, the 700mb winds are
likely to remain fairly strong out of the southwest. With a
capping inversion in place throughout much of the morning and
early afternoon, it`s possible that storms don`t develop until a
Pacific cold front sweeps through the region later in the
afternoon and evening. Lapse rates between 7.5-8 C/km and strong
deep layer shear will likely be in place as the front moves
through the area. Instability, however, remains a bit uncertain.
The timing of the front will have large implications on just how
much energy the atmosphere will have to work with. A later frontal
passage, similar to what the ECMWF advertising, would lead to
lower instability given the overnight timing. At this time, it is
yet too early to pinpoint the exact threats of next week`s
incoming system. Make sure to come back in the coming days for
more details as guidance hopefully comes to better agreement.
Something that is certain is that this will not be the only severe
weather threat this year. It`s never too early to begin preparing
for severe weather. It`s much better to make a plan now and not
need it, than to need a plan and not have one.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The main weather concern with this TAF set is the development of
low cigs overnight into Tuesday morning. Recent guidance is
consistent with a 40+kt low level jet bringing in a deck of MVFR
cigs by daybreak Tuesday in the Metroplex, and a few hours before
at KACT. Ceilings will start improving by midday Tuesday and
should rise into VFR by 21Z. Waning winds this evening should
increase to 15-20 kt by 06Z as the low level jet develops. Gusts
of 25-30 kt will become possible by midday Tuesday.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  72  59  75  63 /   0   5   5   5  10
Waco                54  74  59  77  64 /   0   0   5   0   5
Paris               49  69  55  71  61 /   0   5   0  10  20
Denton              52  72  58  75  62 /   0   5   5   5  10
McKinney            52  70  58  74  63 /   0   5   0   5  10
Dallas              55  73  60  76  66 /   0   0   0   5  10
Terrell             52  71  57  74  63 /   0   5   0   5   5
Corsicana           53  73  58  76  64 /   0   5   0   0   5
Temple              53  74  58  77  63 /   0   5   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       53  74  58  78  61 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion