Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 290815
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1205 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/
/Overnight through Friday Night/

The remainder of the overnight hours should be quiet with passing
high clouds from earlier convection streaming across the region.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 70s in most locations. A
weak disturbance will continue to track westward out of Texas
today allowing stronger mid level ridging to build southward
across the Red River. This should effectively lower our rain
chances today and again Friday. Despite this stronger ridging, a
persistent east-southeast flow will provide sufficient moisture to
the region and should still allow for a few widely scattered
thunderstorms during peak heating. Coverage will generally be 20%
or less and confined to areas mainly south of I-20. Similar to the
last few days, any storms that develop will have the potential for
isolated severe wind gusts.

Temperatures will nudge upward through Friday in response to the
building ridge. We should see highs near or slightly above 100 in
many locations today and again Friday. The added moisture will
result in heat indices at or above 105, especially across our
northeast counties. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this
evening and may be extended into Friday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend Through the Middle of Next Week/

By Saturday, a broad mid-level ridge axis will stretch through
North Texas, but the once intense anticyclone will already be on a
weakening trend. While our heights will climb into the upcoming
weekend, the peak intensity on Saturday will be rather ordinary
for the end of July. This will still mean afternoon temperatures
reaching the upper 90s to near 100 degrees; and when combined
with unseasonably rich boundary layer moisture, heat advisory
criteria will likely be met/exceeded, primarily along and east of
the I-35 corridor.

By Sunday, the ridge will have repositioned itself in the
vertical, baking the Rockies while northwest flow invades the
Plains. Embedded in this flow will be an early August cold front,
which may slip south of the Red River as early as Sunday afternoon
when thunderstorms return to the forecast. As with most summertime
fronts, evidence of the surface boundary will be short-lived. But
with significant negative height anomalies across the eastern half
of the country, the northerly flow aloft will persist, keeping the
weather unsettled through the middle of next week. Daytime
temperatures will be noticeably more tolerable, but southerly
winds will maintain the humidity.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1205 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with light and variable winds
into early Thursday morning. A general southeasterly flow will
prevail by afternoon at 5-10 kt. We`ll keep a VCTS in at Waco
during the afternoon for widely scattered thunderstorms, but this
activity should diminish by early evening.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  80 100  79 100 /  10   0  10   0   5
Waco                96  77  97  77  97 /  20   5  10   0   5
Paris               97  77  98  77  97 /   5   0   5   0   5
Denton              99  76 100  77 100 /  10   0   5   0   0
McKinney            98  77  99  77  98 /  10   0   5   0   5
Dallas              99  81  99  82 100 /  10   0  10   0   5
Terrell             97  76  97  77  97 /  10   0  10   0   5
Corsicana           96  77  97  77  97 /  20   5  10   0   5
Temple              96  75  97  75  97 /  20   5  20   0  10
Mineral Wells       97  74  97  74  98 /  10   5  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-135-148.

&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion