Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 270542
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1142 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday night/

Fog formation is rapidly underway late this evening as evident by
currently visibility trends. We expect widespread dense fog to
develop overnight across much of North and Central Texas,
therefore, a Dense Fog advisory will be issued with this update
for locations generally east of a line from Jacksboro to Lampasas.
It still appears the western zones could see some fog, but higher
dewpoint depressions in most locations should keep the fog more
patchy in nature. We will continue to monitor visibility trends
through the night and adjust the Dense Fog Advisory as necessary.
The fog should slowly dissipate during the morning hours Monday
with a mix of clouds and sun Monday afternoon.

Temperatures Monday will be mild (60s to lower 70s) due to
increasing low level warm air advection ahead of a developing low
pressure system in the west. Large scale lift associated with
approaching shortwave will not arrive until Monday night so will
keep the best PoPs overnight Monday/early Tuesday morning.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

There are a couple of rain and isolated thunderstorm chances in
the upcoming work week. Severe weather does not appear likely at
this time. Temperatures through at least Tuesday will be above
normal before a potent cold front slides southward through the
area. Latest indications are that colder air will result in below
normal temperatures through at least the end of the work week
before a quick warmup this weekend.

Surface cyclogenesis will be well underway across western North
Texas at the start of the long term period with a modest WAA
regime in place across North and Central Texas. Initial
precipitation should be light, but as a stout upper trough digs
southward through the northern Big Country, deeper convection
should erupt. Instability values still appear paltry with values
on the order of a couple of hundred Joules per kilogram forecast.
The most concentrated rain and isolated storm activity is expected
to be near and east of the US HWY 281 corridor through the day on
Tuesday. Severe weather is not anticipated with the limited
instability. The passage of a front will usher in colder air which
should plow southward through the Big Country initially before
invading the remainder of the forecast area through the day. The
latest NAM remains very aggressive with CAA and if taken at face
value may imply the potential for some wintry precipitation,
mainly west of I-35/35W and north of I-20. At this time, the NAM
remains a cold outlier and I`ll keep all precipitation liquid.

Rain/storm chances should diminish from west to east late Tuesday
into Wednesday with clearing conditions, except maybe across East
Texas. There will be a potential for some fog/freezing fog, though
the slightly turbulent wind field aloft may be a mitigating
factor. Trends will be monitored. Lingering CAA should be
sufficient to result in a light freeze across the northern Big
Country/western Red River Valley with overnight lows in the 30s
and 40s elsewhere. Wednesday will remain cool and below normal
with temperatures in the 50s as modest CAA continues through the
day. Ample sunshine should take the edge off a little and it`ll
actually be a pleasant day overall.

Our next upper trough will approach from the Pacific southwest
through the day on Thursday. Southwesterly flow in the mid and
upper levels should send moisture northward into our area.
Indications are that mid and upper level cloud cover will be
pretty dense during the day and this should limit daytime heating
such that we see another afternoon with below normal temperatures.

Marginal chances for showers return to the area Thursday as
ascent atop the slightly cooler/shallow airmass commences.
Many areas should remain thunder-free. Rain chances are at
best only about 20 to 30 percent. Rain chances should really
abate Friday. The weekend will be nice with highs near 70.

24

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern will be dense fog at all TAF
sites overnight/Monday morning. The visibility continues to fall
rapidly late this evening and we expect this trend to continue
as the low levels become saturated due to radiational cooling.
Visibility should fall to around 1 mile between 08Z and 09Z
across all terminals with some temporary reductions to 1/2 mile or
less. These poor visibilties will linger through sunrise Monday
with a very slow improvement through the morning. All visibilities
should improve above 6 miles or better by 18Z Monday.

Southerly winds will gradually increase Monday afternoon/evening
in response to a developing low pressure system across West Texas
and New Mexico. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase
in coverage from west to east Monday night as the system slides
east.

79


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  66  52  58  38 /   0   0  40  50  30
Waco                42  69  52  64  39 /   0   0  50  40  20
Paris               44  63  47  52  38 /   0   0  40  80  50
Denton              42  66  51  55  36 /   0   0  40  50  30
McKinney            44  65  50  56  37 /   0   0  40  60  40
Dallas              47  66  52  58  39 /   0   0  50  50  30
Terrell             46  66  50  58  39 /   0   0  50  60  40
Corsicana           47  66  52  62  41 /   0   0  50  50  30
Temple              45  69  52  64  40 /   0   0  50  40  20
Mineral Wells       42  68  49  57  34 /   0   0  40  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

79/22

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion