Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 222348
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast trends discussed below remain on track, so no
significant changes were needed with this evening`s update other
than to incorporate present observations/trends. The drier post-
frontal air mass will allow overnight lows to drop into the mid
40s to lower 50s across the area. More temperate conditions will
prevail Friday, although still about 5-10 degrees warmer than
late February climate normals, with highs topping out in the lower
70s Friday afternoon.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

The first of two boundaries is making its way through the region,
and lower dew points along with a westerly wind shift are being
observed behind the boundary. As warm and dry air flows from the
higher terrain to our west, downsloping will allow temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across much of the region
over the next few hours. The main exception will be western North
Texas where a cold front will soon breach our northwestern border
(if it hasn`t already). Stronger cold air advection won`t arrive
for another several hours, so temperatures should still climb
another few degrees into the low 70s under cloudless skies, but it
won`t be quite as warm as the rest of the region.

The cold front will arrive in the Metroplex around mid-afternoon
and continue into Central Texas late this afternoon and into the
evening. A significant drop in temperatures is not expected behind
the front, but any additional warming should be minimal as breezy
northwest winds filter into the region. The effects of the front
will be more apparent overnight as temperatures fall into the mid
40s to low 50s. Tomorrow will be quite a bit cooler across the
region relative to the past few days, but temperatures will still
be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late February standards.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with abundant,
unfiltered sunshine and N/NW winds around 5-15 mph.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 358 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

As we go through the weekend, upper level ridging will build into
the region behind the departing shortwave trough. Additionally,
south to southwesterly winds at the surface and low levels of the
atmosphere will promote even warmer temperatures across the region
through early next week. With those S-SW winds, we`ll see a return
of moisture to the region by the end of the weekend. A dryline
will bisect the forecast area early next week. Monday continues
to be the warmest day of the forecast period, with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s to the low 90s out west of the
aforementioned boundary. Increased cirrus cover will be a
limiting factor for warmer afternoon highs, so have kept
temperatures a bit more modest on Monday for now. Current record
high temperatures for February 26th is 90 degrees for both DFW
and Waco, though forecast high temperatures are 88 and 86,
respectively. Current NBM probabilities show ~50% of members
having a high temperature of 90 or higher. There is lesser
confidence (~35% of members) of ACT having a recording-tying high
on Monday.

The dryline will once again bisect the region on Tuesday,
ultimately becoming a focus for showers and storms for areas
generally near and east of I-35 Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as our next storm system moves closer. While the overall
severe risk is still a bit uncertain this many days out, decent
shear profiles and "onion-bulb" soundings lead me to persist with
a message of possible strong storms with gusty winds the main
concern during this time. We`ll continue to monitor guidance
trends on instability and threats over this weekend. The stout
shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains on Wednesday,
shunting a strong cold front through the region during the day.
This front will usher in gusty northerly winds and cooler
temperatures, while punting rain chances further east over the
day.

The latter portion of the week will feature cooler temperatures.
Thursday morning will observe morning lows in the 30s to low 40s
returning. Ensemble guidance is hinting at low-mid 30s returning
across the Red River. Cluster guidance shows that 23% of members
have a colder solution Thursday morning. While this is more
unlikely at this time, this is something of note to keep an eye
on as we go into the upcoming week.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
VFR with N/NW winds (320-340) with speeds 8-14 KTS will prevail
through the period. No significant aviation concerns expected
through Friday evening.

Beyond the current TAF period-- Light northerly surface winds will
back to the west then southwest Saturday (after 00Z).

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  72  48  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                50  71  45  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               48  70  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              46  72  43  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            47  71  44  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              51  72  48  75  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             49  70  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           51  72  47  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  72  44  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       45  72  43  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion