Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 130620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
120 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Today and Tomorrow/

Another cool night is underway as we remain under a shroud of
stratus. Slightly drier air is starting to advect into the area
from the north and is helping erode some of the clouds along the
Red River. The day today will start cool with most of the area
still under a blanket of stratus. The cloud deck should be much
thinner than previous days due a much weaker frontal inversion. A
thinner cloud deck, insolation, and weak dry advection will help
break up the stratus over the course of the day. This will allow
temperatures to be noticeably warmer today with most of the area
climbing into the low 70s. A surface ridge will slide across the
area this afternoon, shifting the winds to be out of the east to
southeast by this evening. One more cool night is in store tonight
before warm and moist advection ramps up tomorrow night. Tomorrow
should be warmer and a little breezy, but still an overall nice
day as the higher moisture air remains to our south.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 211 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021/
/Friday through next Wednesday/

The long-term pattern, in a nutshell, looks seasonably warm, but
unsettled and potentially quite wet. While the details of the
extended forecast remain unclear, we could receive anywhere from
2-4 inches of rainfall next week, possibly coupled with a round
or two of severe weather. This is a pattern completely in keeping
with typical May weather.

Friday will be the driest and most pleasant day of the forecast
period, as a northwesterly upper level flow regime keeps a
fleeting hold on our region`s weather. Sunny skies, afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s and moderate dewpoints in the 50s
should make for a great day.

Saturday and Sunday can more or less be lumped together, as
quasi-zonal flow and a return to breezy southerly winds will occur
both days. While weak, believe a slow-moving shortwave arriving
from the Rockies should provide enough ascent to foster at least
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over our far western
counties Saturday afternoon. Expanded the scattered PoPs to
include most of the forecast area Sunday, as ascent looks to
spread over the whole region in association with the
aforementioned shortwave. Neither deep layer shear nor 100 mb mixed
layer CAPE appear overly impressive either day, and am skeptical
(now, anyway) that any thunderstorms that occur will be severe.

The period from Monday through Wednesday appears substantially
more unsettled - and wet. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions both
depict a compact closed upper low over the Desert Southwest on
Monday, with our region remaining under broad southwesterly flow.
By Tuesday, this closed low will begin to open up, move eastward,
and by Wednesday emerge over the Central/Southern Plains states as
a negatively tilted trough. Preceding this primary trough,
transitory minor waves will lift across our area Monday through
late Tuesday. There`s not much to be said about the PoP forecast
pattern Monday through Wednesday. In general, 40-50% chance PoPs
will be the rule, with likely PoPs intermittently present along
the Red River, and lower chance values present in the southwest
where lift will be less pronounced.

Deep layer moisture advection will persist across the region
through the first half of the week, and precipitable water values
will climb to around 150% of normal. With substantial CAPE values
and largely uncapped sounding profiles evolving during this
period, believe we may be in store for multiple rounds of
shower/thunderstorms over the 72-84 hour period, with each
cluster capable of producing a brief heavy round of rainfall.
Storm total QPF values ranging from 2-4 inches are not out of the
question. While the jury is still out as to whether flash flood
watches will be needed, this pattern will very likely lead to
continued rises on many of our area rivers.

With healthy amounts of CAPE advertised at times over the area
through the early to middle part of next week, we certainly can`t
rule out the possibility of severe thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday as 0-6 km shear exceeds 40 knots in some areas. Given
the fact that the original Desert Southwest shortwave should
transit the region on Wednesday and contribute increased shear and
forcing for ascent, one would think this will be the most
opportune day for severe storms. There remains considerable
uncertainty, however, in the timing and strength of individual
shortwaves. Thus - this far out - it`s unclear exactly when or
where any severe weather events may unfold. It`s May, so
contingency planning for potential severe weather next week - and
flash flooding - is certainly warranted.



/06Z TAFs/

Stratus remains over the area with VFR ceilings over D10 and MVFR
for terminals generally south of I-20. The ceilings should persist
through the early morning hours with a gradual erosion of the
cloud deck during daylight hours. Most, if not all, terminals
should become VFR by mid morning due to either the ceilings
scattering out or lifting above 3 kft. A light northeast wind
will prevail through much of the day. Winds this afternoon will
gradually veer to become out of the southeast around or after 00Z.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  77  63  82  66 /   0   0   0  20  40
Waco                55  78  62  81  65 /   0   0   5  30  30
Paris               50  74  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   5  30
Denton              52  76  60  80  64 /   0   0   5  20  40
McKinney            51  76  60  80  64 /   0   0   0  10  40
Dallas              56  77  64  82  66 /   0   0   0  20  30
Terrell             51  77  59  80  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           55  77  61  82  64 /   0   0   0  20  30
Temple              56  77  61  80  64 /   0   0   5  30  30
Mineral Wells       52  78  60  80  63 /   0   0   5  30  30




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion