Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

716
FXUS64 KFWD 191045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast is in good shape and we will only make some minor
hourly cloud adjustments based on the stratus currently moving
through Central Texas. These clouds will lift and scatter as they
spread northward, leaving plenty of sun this afternoon to push
temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Sunday night/

The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains
will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough
in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the
western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough
to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure
gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region
along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge
will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring
early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday
morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low
clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level
warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon
Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat
index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather
will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to
limit fog production.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
/Monday through Saturday/

The work week will start out hot, rain-free, and humid due to low
level warm advection and ridging aloft. Highs Monday and Tuesday
will range from the upper 80s in the east to the middle 90s in the
west. Lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The upper ridge axis will shift to the east Tuesday in response
to a trough approaching from the west. Although large scale
forcing for ascent will gradually increase, it will likely not be
strong enough to eliminate a cap of warm air aloft. Therefore, no
measurable rainfall or thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, but
a few storms developing along and just ahead of an approaching
cold front may manage to cross the Red River Tuesday night. Storm
chances will increase Wednesday when the front moves into North
Texas and a shortwave moves quickly through southwest flow aloft.
The front is progged to move a bit farther south Wednesday night,
but it may get a push farther south depending on the extent of
cool convective outflows that may develop during the day. Lift
along the front and passage of additional shortwaves will warrant
chance PoPs Wednesday night with slightly higher PoPs Thursday due
to the arrival of stronger shortwave energy and the return of the
front back to the north. It is difficult to say exactly where and
how much rain will fall, but the setup has the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall which may result in some flooding.
Instability and wind shear are also progged to be sufficient for
some strong to severe storms, especially Thursday afternoon.
Rain/storm chances will temporarily end on Friday but the passage
of additional shortwaves embedded in southwest flow may spark a
few storms Friday night.

Temperatures the second half of the week will be slightly cooler
due to more clouds, showers/storms, and the brief appearance of
the cold front. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be generally in
the 80s to around 90. Lows Wednesday night will range from the
middle 60s near the Red River to the lower 70s across Central
Texas. A slight warmup is expected Friday and Saturday with highs
in the upper 80s and 90s and lows from the upper 60s to the lower
70s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Stratus has developed as expected and will reach Waco before TAF
issuance. Ceilings will temporarily lower below 1000 ft through
sunrise, but will lift and scatter by mid/late morning. Some brief
visibility restrictions between 3 and 6 miles will also accompany
the low clouds. Only remnants of these low clouds will reach D10
later this morning with VFR conditions expected through Monday
morning.

A southeast to south wind will prevail through Monday morning.
Wind speeds around or below 10 knots this morning will increase
between 10 and 16 knots this afternoon along with some higher
gusts.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  73  91  74  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                88  69  88  73  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               89  69  88  71  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              91  71  90  72  90 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            89  71  88  72  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              92  73  91  75  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             89  69  88  72  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           91  71  89  73  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              88  69  88  72  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       91  71  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion