Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
684
FXUS64 KFWD 220647
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
147 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon mainly across
Central Texas with gusty downburst winds possible.
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail
through the remainder of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
A weak surface front/trough remains draped through parts of North
Texas this morning, but will begin pivoting southwestward later
today. Despite most of the area being positioned within
northeasterly flow behind this boundary, temperatures will remain
several degrees above normal for our first official day of fall
with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints will mix into the
mid 60s by late afternoon, and this will keep heat index values in
the 97-102 degree range. While some convection is possible near
the low-level confluent axis of the surface trough this
afternoon, coverage of thunderstorms should be mitigated by a
return to mid-level ridging and attendant subsidence aloft. We`ll
carry low PoPs mainly from Central Texas northwestward into the
Big Country with overall coverage unlikely to exceed about 20%.
Given the large surface T/Td spreads and deeply inverted-V
soundings, strong downburst wind gusts would once again be the
primary hazard with any thunderstorm activity through the peak
heating hours. Overnight lows will also be ~10 degrees above
normal with readings in the low/mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
The remainder of the workweek will feature hot and mostly rain-
free weather as a secondary push of dry air arrives within
northeasterly low-level flow while the near-surface moisture axis
pivots into West Texas. The one exception may be across western
North Texas where isolated convection could attempt to creep into
our westernmost counties on Wednesday afternoon, but the majority
of the CWA will remain dry. Steadily building heights overhead
will maintain above normal temperatures for the following few days,
but humidity will be low with dewpoints likely to mix into the 50s
through the end of the week. This will offer some minor relief
from the persistent unseasonable heat, but unfortunately may also
lead to a resurgence of elevated fire weather conditions through
the late week period despite modest wind speeds.
Some rain chances may resume from Sunday into next week as
extended guidance begins to favor a more active weather pattern
across much of the CONUS. A lead Central Plains shortwave may
result in some low thunderstorm chances late in the weekend, with
perhaps a more significant breakdown of the ridge allowing for a
frontal intrusion during the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light
northeast winds. There is a chance for isolated convection this
afternoon mainly across Central Texas, but the expected coverage
is too low to advertise in the Waco TAF at this time. All TSRA
activity is expected to remain south of the D10 TAF sites today.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
Waco 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
Paris 94 71 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 94 70 95 70 / 10 10 10 0
McKinney 95 70 94 69 / 10 10 0 0
Dallas 96 76 96 74 / 10 10 10 0
Terrell 97 73 95 71 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 97 74 96 72 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 96 73 98 73 / 20 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 93 69 95 70 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
