Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
285
FXUS64 KFWD 162310
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
510 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire
starts across western North and Central Texas Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Upper-level ridging will lead to a fairly tranquil weather day
across North and Central Texas. Highs this afternoon will climb
into the 70s to around 80 degrees, which is about 10 to 20 degrees
above normal for this time of the year. Winds will be out out of
the south between 10-15 mph.
Tonight will continue to be quiet on the weather front with
overnight temperatures in the 50s. Although clear skies are
expected to start the night, southerly flow across the Southern
Plains will help draw clouds out of the south by early Tuesday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
The above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of
the week with widespread 80s across North and Central Texas. The
warm weather, in tandem with increasing wind speeds and low
relative humidity, will yield several days of elevated fire
weather conditions.
On Tuesday, a shortwave will move northeast from New Mexico to
the Texas Panhandle. Ahead of the shortwave, breezy southwesterly
winds will develop throughout North Texas with 20 mph winds
gusting to around 30 mph. A dryline is expected to develop and
remain just west of our region, however, minimum relative humidity
values will still manage to dip to around 30 percent west of
US-281.
For Wednesday and Thursday, wind speeds will be slightly lower,
however, much drier air will arrive from the west. Minimum
relative humidity both Wednesday and Thursday will fall into the
teens and 20% range. This will lead to further drying of
vegetation that could burn if a source of significant heat is
introduced.
A cold front is slated to arrive on Friday, bringing a diminishing
threat for fire starts. This front should lead to temperatures
mostly in the 60s through the weekend with low rain chances east
of I-35.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
VFR will prevail through tonight before a brief MVFR stratus
intrusion occurs tomorrow morning. This stratus should encroach on
Waco by 10z and eastern Metroplex airports around 12z before
quickly shifting eastward by mid morning. The AFW and FTW western
TAF sites may remain unaffected with lower probabilities for cigs.
Cig heights should mostly be between 1-2 kft, although a brief
dip to IFR is possible. Southerly winds will increase late
tomorrow morning, with gusts near or exceeding 25 kts through
most of the afternoon while VFR skies prevail.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 76 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 53 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 50 72 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 51 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 53 74 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 54 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 53 74 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 54 77 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 52 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 52 83 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
