Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 220538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Tonight/

Despite a cold start to this morning, steady temperature
moderation will continue today with clear skies and a light east
wind. Highs should be able to climb into the upper 40s and lower
50s across the area, while surface high pressure becomes
reinforced by slight height rises across the Southern Plains. Dry
air and resultant low humidity could support a few wildfire
starts again today, but fire weather concerns will otherwise be
low due to very light wind speeds. By early Sunday morning,
cirrus may begin increasing across Central Texas associated with a
strengthening subtropical jet ahead of a deep Four Corners cutoff



.LONG TERM... /Issued 138 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022/
/Sunday through Next Week/

A surface high will be centered and oriented along the Gulf Coast
late this weekend and early next week with an upper low over the
desert southwest of the CONUS. This will keep the local weather
quiet with mild temperatures and light winds Sunday. The upper low
will move over the Southern Plains Monday, finally bringing rain
chances to the region. Given the current drought situation, any
mention of rain in the forecast will be a welcome sight, but
unfortunately it does not look like this system will be anything
close to a drought buster.

This system will be relatively quick-moving as a jetmax rounds the
trough and results in a highly sheared upper trough that fills &
translates east quickly. As such, there will be a quick ramp-up of
lift and frontogenetic forcing which will create relatively
widespread rain showers across the eastern half of the state
Sunday night and Monday. Since pre-event moisture return will be
brief, available moisture will be limited and instability will be
negligible. These factors point to a "high PoP, low QPF" event
where most could see *some* rain, but not many will receive very
much rain. Rain amounts will continue to come into focus, but at
this point most south of I-20 and east of I-35 can expect between
about 0.25-0.75" of rain with lesser amounts further west and
north. Temperatures should be too warm to support any winter
precip. As the system is drawn east, rain chances should end
quickly early Monday night.

Quickly on the heels of this system will be a much deeper and
stronger trough that eventually settles over the Eastern CONUS
through the latter parts of next week. This will drive a cold
front through the area Monday night and bring cooler temperatures
to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be cool,
but nothing too extraordinary for late January. From then on, the
ensemble mean guidance indicates a warming trend, but the latest
deterministic globals show another cold front sweeping across the
area late in the week. For now, we have maintained the current
blended guidance and are not overly opinionated about picking the
warmer or cooler solution.



/06z TAFs/

Minimal aviation concerns through the period with mostly clear
skies and light/variable winds. Predominant wind direction today
should be easterly before taking on a more southerly component
this evening. Speeds should generally be around 5 kts or less
through the period.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    24  50  31  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                19  51  29  62  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               20  47  28  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              22  50  24  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            22  49  28  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              25  49  31  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             20  50  26  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           21  51  29  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              21  52  29  61  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       19  51  26  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   5




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion