Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
000
FXUS64 KFWD 281934
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
234 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1149 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/
/This Afternoon through Friday Night/
Sunny skies and warm conditions will continue for the rest of the
afternoon and again on Friday despite a weak upper trough
lingering along the Texas coast. Water vapor imagery shows very
dry air across much of the Southern Plains with better moisture
confined to coastal areas. Outside of a few scattered cumulus
clouds today and Friday, no significant weather is expected. South
winds around 10 mph will continue both days with afternoon highs
10-12 degrees above normal.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday through Thursday/
The heat will linger through the weekend with the eastern half of
the state remaining in the grips of upper level high pressure.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower and middle
90s. A south to southeast wind will increase late this weekend
into early next week with deepening surface low pressure across
the Central High Plains. The surface low will deepen in response
to an intensifying upper trough across the western CONUS. The deep
trough is progged to move east across the Rockies into the
Central Plains by midweek with a cold front following on its
heels. Increasing large scale lift associated with the approaching
trough will warrant low shower/storm chances across the western
zones Tuesday. Better storm chances will accompany the passage of
the upper trough and the arrival of the cold front Tuesday night
through Wednesday. There is still uncertainty on the timing of the
trough and front, so we will keep PoPs in the 20% to 50% range
for now and hold on to low PoPs on Thursday.
High temperatures to start the week will remain well above normal
(lower and middle 90s), but increasing clouds associated with
the approaching system, followed by cold air advection behind the
front, will knock high temperatures closer to where they should
be this time of year. Overnight lows next week will range from
the middle 60s to the lower 70s with some lower 60s showing up by
the end of the week.
Fire Weather:
Abundant sun and well above normal temperatures through the first
half of next week will continue to lower fuel moisture. Light wind
speeds at the end of the week will increase this weekend through
early next week. The combination of hot temperatures, breezy south
winds, and afternoon relative humidity below 30 percent will
elevate the fire threat, especially Sunday and Monday across the
western half of the region. Humidity will increase on Tuesday and
rain chances will return which should lower the overall fire
threat.
79
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1149 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail with south winds around 10 kt through the period.
No significant aviation concerns expected through Friday.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 94 72 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris 92 69 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 96 71 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 93 70 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 96 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 93 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 95 72 94 72 95 / 5 0 0 0 0
Temple 95 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 98 70 97 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
