Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 180538
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

Fairly tranquil weather will prevail heading into the weekend
with temperatures near or slightly below normal. We`ll maintain
deep northeasterly flow through the column with a slow-moving
upper trough axis now positioned east of the forecast area. This
pattern will result in the advection of noticeably drier air over
the next 24-36 hours, and surface dewpoints should fall into the
50s by daybreak Saturday. Before this can occur, however, a decent
amount of low-level moisture will still be present this
afternoon, and fairly widespread diurnal cumulus should be able to
develop. If any of these thermals end up overachieving, they
could result in a brief rain shower as far north as I-20. However,
that potential is quite low and PoPs will be less than 10%.
Afterwards, the arrival of that drier air will cause quick
clearing of low clouds, and will allow for cooler low temps on
Friday night.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 346 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/
/Friday Night through Next Week/

A weak and generally diffuse backdoor cold front should work its
way into the region Friday night into Saturday. Although this
won`t be a prototypical front since there won`t be any noticeable
wind shift or sharp pressure rises, we do expect higher pressure
and drier air to move in. This will put an end to all precip
chances and allow for generally pleasant weather this weekend with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. The coolest
temperatures are expected Sunday morning as dry air and clear
skies allow for strong radiational cooling Saturday night.

Our attention will then shift to the Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical
System develops and begins to impact parts of the Gulf Coast late
this weekend into next week. Initially, it will impact North and
Central Texas by strengthening the east-northeasterly flow and
induced surface ridge between the tropical low and a weak leeside
low over Northern Colorado. This would further reinforce the dry
air Saturday and Saturday night.

At this point, we are confident in the tropical low progressing
north in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. By Sunday, it
should begin to advect more humid air into the region along the
far northern and northwestern fringes of the system. Although we
should be mostly precip free Sunday, there is an outside chance of
a brief shower over Central and Southeast Texas associated with
the far outer outflow-driven rain bands. Sunday night onward, our
forecast confidence drops quite a bit, but the model consensus at
this point is that the low will shift west this weekend and
approach the Texas coastline early next week. In the middle to
late parts of the week, a synoptic mid level trough should then
dig into the Southern Plains and kick the low east. The details
regarding the strength and location of the low will largely
determine what happens locally next week, which at this point we
are too uncertain to say for sure either way at this time. Due to
this, we have sided largely with blended guidance and introduced
low end PoPs over Central and Southeast Texas early next week.
Across the remainder of the region, northeasterly flow should
prevail with near to slightly below normal temperatures
continuing.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/|06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with northeast winds around
10 kts or less. Some diurnal cumulus around 5-6 kft will be
present today, but otherwise sky coverage will consist of only
some passing cirrus.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  86  63  82  59 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                68  86  63  82  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  84  57  78  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              65  84  60  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  85  59  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              68  86  63  82  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             66  86  59  81  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  84  61  82  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              67  85  63  83  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       62  84  57  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/30

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion