Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
711
FXUS64 KFWD 132358
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A critical to extreme fire weather threat will materialize on
Friday across all of North and Central Texas. The most
significant wildfire threat will be west of the I-35 corridor.
- Occasional damaging non-thunderstorm gradient wind gusts of 60-65
mph are expected on Friday generally along and west of
Interstate 35.
- With the exception of Sunday, the elevated to critical fire
weather threat will continue on a daily basis through at least
the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Friday/
No signficant changes to the forecast thinking for the major
storm system advertised to move through the Central Plains on
Friday, delivering intense gradient winds and critical fire
weather conditions to all of North Central Texas. A powerful
upper level trough now over Southern California will move rapidly
eastward overnight, emerging from the Southern Rockies as a
tightly closed, deepening upper low that will track across Kansas
during the afternoon hours. Concurrently, an intense surface low
will also transit Kansas, producing an extremely tight pressure
gradient over the region during most of the daylight hours Friday.
As the main upper system approaches, good confidence exists that
surface wind speeds over North Central Texas will start increasing
during the pre dawn hours. Winds just above the surface should
really start to intensify after midnight, but with some
decoupling still ongoing in the boundary layer, am doubtful that
all of this momentum will be able to transfer to the surface
overnight. After daybreak, good mixing will begin to commence,
however, and a steady ramping up of windspeeds should occur from
late morning onward. Our High Wind Warning remains in effect from
7 am to 7 pm, with the main period of concern occurring from
around 11 am to 5 pm. Frequent gusts in excess of 45 mph are
likely west of the I-20 corridor, and some peak gusts of 60 to 65
mph are still possible during the afternoon hours. Relatively
speaking, we should start to see some relaxation of the gradient
after 5 pm Friday, allowing winds to gradually recede as we enter
the evening hours.
Given the magnitude of these winds, it`s still critical for
drivers of high profile vehicles to prepare for hazardous driving
conditions especially on roadways partly or totally perpendicular
to the extreme west/southwest winds. Blowing dust may also result
in some localized reductions of visibility. Some tree or light
structural damage will be possible, and any lightweight or poorly
anchored items or structures must be secured. Finally, it`s not
out of the question that some power outages may occur at some
point during the day Friday.
The other main concern Friday will be the extreme fire conditions
engendered by the strong winds, low humidities on the order of 10
to 20 percent, and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
all of North Central Texas from 11 am to 9 pm on Friday. All
interests in the region need to be extremely cautious with any
tools or objects which could produce sparks or open flame, as any
wildfire starts could spread in a rapid and uncontained manner.
This elevated fire weather threat is a signficant as we`ve
encountered in a number of years, and the potential for serious wildfire
impacts across North Texas needs to be recognized and respected.
Bradshaw
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/
/Friday Night Into Next Week/
An elevated to critical fire weather threat will be the main
point of focus over the weekend and through the middle of next
week. On top of this, latest CAM guidance is picking up on some
mid-level moisture through Saturday morning that may result in
some isolated to scattered virga. Surface dew points will be quite
low, generally in the 20s and 30s. Therefore, the chances for
precipitation reaching the ground will be low. We have introduced
some low end, silent PoPs across our southernmost Central Texas
counties where better moisture will reside. There may be
occasionally gusty and erratic winds underneath any virga that
manages to develop, which will be worth keeping an eye on as we
move into early Saturday morning and into the afternoon.
Above average warmth, occasionally breezy winds, and continued
dry conditions will ensure that the fire weather threat is
something to keep an eye on. Because of this, we will go ahead and
issue a Fire Weather Watch on Saturday across our southernmost
counties in Central Texas where the best conditions for a
continued fire weather threat will exist. Moisture return will be
difficult to come by with better transport to our south and east,
meaning rain chances will remain very low to near zero through at
least the middle of next week. A dry cold front will push into the
region on Wednesday, which may result in an uptick in wind
speeds. This could exacerbate any existing fires and lead to
additional spread. Please remain weather aware this weekend!
Reeves
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
A canopy of thick cirrus will continue to spread over North
Central Texas overnight, ahead of an intense upper level storm
system moving through the Southwest states. A mass of stratus
moving northward out of Central Texas will overspread much of
North Texas east of I-35 between 09z and 15z, producing some VFR
ceilings mainly east of the D10 and Waco TAF sites. All of this
cloudiness will shift eastward away from the region after 15z, as
the strong upper low emerges from the Rockies and begins to
transit the Panhandle Region and Kansas.
Intense west winds in the lowest 20kft of the atmosphere,
sweeping eastward on the southern periphery of this upper low,
will transport much drier, subsiding air across North Texas from
late morning Friday through 03z Saturday. Ample mixing in the
lowest layers of the atmosphere will enable much of this momentum
to be transferred to the surface at all TAF sites during the day
Friday. Sustained southwest to west winds on the order of 15 to
25 knots around 12z on Friday will increase to 25 to 30 knots
sustained by 17z-21z, with a few gusts to near 45 knots possible
within D10 during this timeframe. Some relaxation of the gradient
after 21z should allow speeds to subside to 18 to 25 knots as
sunset is approached.
The intense winds may help transport a plume of dust eastward out
of West Texas into the D10 region after 19z. Some reductions in
visibility are possible during the afternoon, though the
magnitude of this effect will depend greatly on the exact
trajectory that any dust plume takes out of West Texas. For now,
am not entirely confident in this scenario developing and
impacting D10, so have held off on any mention with the 00z
package.
Bradshaw
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 79 56 73 46 / 0 0 0 5 0
Waco 62 81 56 74 46 / 0 0 5 0 0
Paris 59 78 52 70 42 / 0 10 0 10 0
Denton 59 77 50 70 41 / 0 0 0 5 0
McKinney 60 78 52 71 43 / 0 0 0 5 0
Dallas 63 80 57 73 48 / 0 0 0 5 0
Terrell 61 80 51 73 43 / 0 0 5 5 0
Corsicana 63 83 54 75 46 / 0 0 5 5 0
Temple 61 84 52 76 45 / 0 0 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 59 78 50 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>093-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ094-095-
105>107-121>123-135-146>148-156>162-174-175.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
for TXZ156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
