Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
409
FXUS64 KFWD 081829
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
129 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be low chances (10-30%) for rain showers each
afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday.
- A more unsettled pattern will bring multiple rounds of showers
and storms to the region this weekend into next week. Severe
thunderstorms with all hazards including flooding will be
possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
Not a lot of changes to the weather pattern for today with a
surface high pressure to our east keeping the southerly flow
across the region. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday with highs in the mid-upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
The rest of the short-term forecast remains in good shape as the
warming trend continues tomorrow and winds become slightly breezy
during the day. A few warm advection showers and isolated storms
are possible across portions of Central Texas in the late
afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity. Most of the activity will diminish shortly after
sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
After a quiet week, we will switch back to a more active period
over the weekend into next week. Multiple rounds of showers and
storms are expected, especially Sunday through early next week.
Friday will feature a fairly quiet and mild day as the main upper
level system enters the California coast. Party sunny skies and
breezy southerly winds are expected but we can`t rule out a few
warm advection showers and isolated storms in the afternoon and
evening. The severe weather threat is low with this activity.
Saturday through Monday: As the western trough continues to move
eastward over the weekend, mid-level flow will strengthen over
the southern Plains. With the passage of each disturbance aloft,
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, with the
highest chances Saturday evening through Sunday night. At this
time, the best potential for severe weather on Saturday will
remain across West TX where the combination of instability and
shear will be highest. The threat will shift eastward on Sunday as
the main trough gets closer to our area and deep layer shear
becomes more favorable over North and Central Texas. While we
can`t narrow down the areas with the highest risk at this time,
all hazards are possible Sunday afternoon through the night.
Another wave of showers and storms are expected on Monday and some
may also become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and at
least a low tornado threat.
Tuesday and Wednesday: The upper level trough will finally
approach the southern Plains with a surface cold front/dryline
moving across portions of our area. This means that more rounds
of showers and storms will likely develop on Tuesday and/or
Wednesday. We will have to continue to monitor the potential for
severe weather and pockets of heavy rain. Given there will be
multiple rounds of heavy rain late this weekend into next week,
flooding may also become an increasing concern. Specific details
will need to be adjusted over the next few days, so continue to
check back for updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
No significant aviation concerns are expected through Thursday
afternoon. VFR conditions will persist under a few passing
cumulus and mid-high level clouds. Winds will remain from the
southeast around 5 to 11 kts gusting to around 15-18 kts this
afternoon. A brief period of MVFR clouds may approach KACT
Thursday morning before scattering out by 17Z. This is not
expected to impact any of the DFW Metroplex sites. Otherwise,
winds will increase slightly in the afternoon with a few isolated
warm advection showers moving into portions of Central Texas.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 78 58 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
Paris 77 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 77 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 57 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 60 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 78 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 80 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 58 82 61 / 0 0 20 20
Mineral Wells 78 54 81 59 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
