Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 011030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Regional radar imagery shows a blossom of showers this morning
across our southern counties, likely in response to deepening
moisture and weak ascent from our slow moving upper trough to the
south. Cloud ceiling heights are generally around 10,000 ft, so
these initial showers are higher based and likely producing just a
quick shot of steady light rain. We`ve adjusted PoPs up slightly a
little farther north this morning. Otherwise, the forecast remains
relatively unchanged over the next 36 hours. The upper trough to
the south will slowly move northward and we`ll see a diurnal
increase in showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Rain chances will creep upward tomorrow as the trough
will be closer.

Dunn

&&

Previous Discussion:
/Rest of Tonight through Monday/

Thickening mid and high level clouds have overspread North and
Central Texas tonight and will lead to a mild overnight with
temperatures generally in the upper 60s. Water vapor imagery and
vad wind profile data indicate the center of our weak upper level
disturbance is spreading into the Big Bend region at this hour.
Deep tropospheric moisture is in place across Central and South
Texas where the Corpus Christi 00Z sounding sampled a PW of 2.04".
A sprawling surface ridge has kept North Texas within a relatively
dry easterly flow for the last few days. This is indicated by the
Fort Worth sounding which sampled a PW of only 0.84". The richer
moisture to the south will along with weak but persistent lift
will result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms again
today mainly across Central Texas. As moisture steadily creeps
northward through the day though, we should see a little better
coverage of showers in our area, mainly across our southwest
counties. We`ll have PoPs between 20-50% across the south and
southwest. Farther north in the drier air, we`ll remain
precipitation free, but underneath a canopy of mid and high
clouds.

The weak upper trough will continue to spread north through the
Southern Plains overnight and on Tuesday. As better moisture
overspreads North Texas, we`ll likely see an increase in scattered
afternoon showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Given the
spotty nature of the activity, we`ll keep PoPs limited to 20-30%.
There will be enough instability for some gusty winds with the
strongest storms, but locally heavy rainfall and lightning would
be the main threat through Tuesday. High temperatures will
continue to top out in the mid/upper 80s both today and Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The upper level PV anomaly will gradually become diffused Tuesday
Night/Wednesday as it gets pushed east into Louisiana. With less
forcing for ascent across the region, afternoon convection will
likely become less prevalent across much of the region on
Wednesday. The one exception will be in the far eastern counties,
where a stray shower or storm cant be ruled out due to better
deep layer moisture. Humidity will still remain fairly high as dew
points climb into the lower 70s. The high dew points can be
attributed to southerly low-level winds that will remain in place
through the rest of the week and into the weekend. With
temperatures climbing to the 90s by the end of this week, heat
index values are expected to approach, if not slightly exceed, 100
degrees.

Afternoon convection will be possible along the Gulf Coast region
each afternoon. Although the convection will likely be moving
northward towards Central Texas, it is expected to dissipate as
daytime heating diminishes. A dry couple of days are expected
through the weekend before our attention turns to any Gulf of
Mexico activity that may attempt to influence North and Central
Texas sensible weather early next week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with abundant mid and high
level cloud cover persisting. A few showers have developed this
morning, mainly south of the Metroplex airports. Most of the
precipitation activity today will be across our southern areas. A
light easterly wind will become more southeast later today.
Slightly better rain chances will overspread the region on Tuesday
as the upper low to the south moves northward.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  71  88  71  92 /   0   0  30   0   5
Waco                84  69  87  69  90 /  30  10  30   0   5
Paris               84  67  84  68  87 /   0   5  20   5  20
Denton              87  69  87  70  91 /   0   0  30   0   5
McKinney            87  68  87  70  91 /   0   0  30   0  10
Dallas              88  72  89  71  92 /   0   0  30   0  10
Terrell             86  68  87  69  90 /   0   5  30   5  10
Corsicana           84  70  87  70  89 /  20   5  20   5  10
Temple              83  68  87  69  89 /  40  20  20   0  10
Mineral Wells       85  67  87  68  91 /  10   5  30   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

91

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion