Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Thu, Jun 28, 2018 - Fri, Jun 29, 2018 D7Sun, Jul 01, 2018 - Mon, Jul 02, 2018
D5Fri, Jun 29, 2018 - Sat, Jun 30, 2018 D8Mon, Jul 02, 2018 - Tue, Jul 03, 2018
D6Sat, Jun 30, 2018 - Sun, Jul 01, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 250835
SWOD48
SPC AC 250834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Thu/D4, an upper ridge will shift eastward from the Plains toward
the Great Lakes as an upper trough moves across the northern Rockies
toward the High Plains. Low pressure will deepen over the Dakotas
late in the day and overnight, with a warm front lifting northward
into ND and northern MN into Fri/D5 morning. A 40-50 kt southerly
low-level jet will develop, which will aid in the northward
transport of instability. Forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE in
excess of 4000 J/kg from SD into IA, with increasing deep-layer
shear and gradual height falls late. Thus, it appears likely there
will be a possible MCS corridor near the warm front. A few
supercells with hail are possible as well. Activity may form near
the Black Hills by 00Z, and increase in coverage as it spreads
across ND into northwest MN. Damaging winds and hail will be
possible.

Additional nocturnal storm activity capable of wind and hail is
possible Friday night from NE into WI in association with an
elongated surface trough and broad fetch of warm southwesterly
low-level winds. However, predictability is too low to denote a risk
area. This threat of scattered severe storms will persist into
Sat/D6 across much the same area as moderate southwesterly flow
aloft further overspreads the Plains and upper MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 06/25/2018