Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Jul 26, 2019 - Sat, Jul 27, 2019 D7Mon, Jul 29, 2019 - Tue, Jul 30, 2019
D5Sat, Jul 27, 2019 - Sun, Jul 28, 2019 D8Tue, Jul 30, 2019 - Wed, Jul 31, 2019
D6Sun, Jul 28, 2019 - Mon, Jul 29, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 230858
SWOD48
SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale pattern during much of the Day 4-8 time frame will
be characterized by a belt of stronger mid-level flow across the
northern U.S., and an expansive upper-level high centered over the
Great Basin/central Rockies.  A couple of notable shortwave troughs
will move east within the stronger flow early in the period, likely
associated with some severe potential.  Sufficient uncertainty
remains regarding timing/location of upper-level features and
associated surface fronts/mesoscale details such that predictability
is too low for daily probabilities with this outlook.

..Bunting.. 07/23/2019