Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Wed, Mar 21, 2018 - Thu, Mar 22, 2018 D7Sat, Mar 24, 2018 - Sun, Mar 25, 2018
D5Thu, Mar 22, 2018 - Fri, Mar 23, 2018 D8Sun, Mar 25, 2018 - Mon, Mar 26, 2018
D6Fri, Mar 23, 2018 - Sat, Mar 24, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS48 KWNS 180843
SPC AC 180841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

A stable pattern will exist on Day 4 and 5 due to an expansive upper
trough across eastern North America and high pressure over the
eastern states and Gulf of Mexico. Upper troughiness over the
western states will shift into central parts of the CONUS during the
D6-D8 period as an upper ridge over the Plains gets shunted east.

On Friday/D6, the first shortwave trough will move into the central
Plains, along with a surface low. However, meager moisture and
instability will not favor a severe weather threat, though
thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest Friday night
near a warm front.

Beyond D6, a second, larger upper trough is likely to move slowly
across the Rockies and eventually into the Plains, and by this time
moisture and instability should be greater, supporting some severe
potential. However, predictability is low at this time.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2018