Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Nov 18, 2018 - Mon, Nov 19, 2018 D7Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - Thu, Nov 22, 2018
D5Mon, Nov 19, 2018 - Tue, Nov 20, 2018 D8Thu, Nov 22, 2018 - Fri, Nov 23, 2018
D6Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - Wed, Nov 21, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 150829
SWOD48
SPC AC 150828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through the
medium-range period.

Stable continental air mass will settle across the CONUS east of the
Rockies into the middle of next week. Models are in general
agreement that moisture/instability will struggle to advance inland
along the Gulf/Atlantic coasts and severe thunderstorm threat will
remain low through the day4-8 period.

..Darrow.. 11/15/2018