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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 231233
SPC AC 231232

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z


Scattered wind damage from strong gusts are most likely this
afternoon into early evening centered on eastern North Carolina.

...South Atlantic States...
Diabatic warming of a moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints
will result in moderate buoyancy (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) this
afternoon. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along
both an impinging cold front and pre-frontal confluence bands. The
region will remain on the periphery of moderate mid-level
southwesterlies with the southern extent of 30-35 kt 700-mb winds
remaining confined to NC north. This portion of the risk area should
have the greatest potential for linear clustering and short-duration
bowing segments. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak,
steepening low-level lapse rates should promote a risk for strong
gusts and associated wind damage. 

A minor mid-level vorticity maximum near the CA/NV border will be
kicked north into ID by evening, downstream of a shortwave trough
that will reach the WA/BC border by early morning Wednesday. Both of
these features will promote episodic isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity. Deeply mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles will be common ahead of the lead impulse, promoting a risk
for isolated severe wind gusts. In the lee of the northern Rockies
across central MT, greater buoyancy will exist owing to the presence
of mid 50s surface dew points. This might also support a risk for
marginally severe hail, but proximity to the mid-level ridge axis
may be a limiting factor to greater severe coverage.

Stronger mid/upper-level shear will accompany the primary shortwave
trough. However, thunderstorm activity with this wave should occur
overnight amid weak elevated buoyancy. A residual dry sub-cloud
layer could still foster a risk of locally strong to severe gusts
from eastern WA to northwest MT.

...Lower CO River Valley...
In the wake of an MCS yesterday, a remnant MCV is located west of
the Phoenix metro area. This feature should drift northwest across
the Lower CO Valley. A belt of enhanced mid-level southeasterlies
may help to loosely organize late afternoon thunderstorms that can
develop off the higher terrain in northwest AZ. While buoyancy will
be meager, deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts until just after dusk.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/23/2019