Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

999
FXUS64 KFWD 251714
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Visible satellite imagery shows an expansive cumulus field across
approximately the southeast half of the CWA this afternoon. This
corresponds well with an increase in precipitable water from a
plume of deeper moisture that has spread into Texas from the Gulf.
The atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across much of the
southeast CWA and this is where scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms have developed. Farther to the northwest, it remains
a little drier and more subsident. The outflow boundary from
earlier convection in Oklahoma was generally along the I-20
corridor this morning but has begun to lift northward and will
eventually allow a little better moisture to spread northwestward.
For the remainder of the afternoon, there should continue to be a
scattering of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly east of I-35
where we`ll have 20-40% PoPs. Coverage will be less to the west.
Deeper moisture should allow for efficient rainfall with the
heavier storms producing 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in a short period
of time. Given the increase in moisture and cloud cover, we`ve
also lowered high temperatures between 2-4 degrees areawide for
this afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 622 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018/
/12Z TAFs/

A band of showers is moving through the DFW Metroplex but will not
last much longer than 13Z. At this time, do not expect the rain to
make it down to KACT but will be watching the trends of the
outflow boundary. However, isolated to scattered showers and
storms will remain possible during the day and will retain a VCSH
in the Metroplex from 13-16Z, and then at KACT this afternoon from
18-22Z. MVFR cigs at all the TAF sites should improve to VFR
around 14-15Z, but MVFR cigs will return again late tonight as
south winds continue in a humid environment.


An outflow boundary is resulting in north winds across the DFW
Metroplex, but these winds should return to a southerly flow by
late morning. South winds of 15-20 kts with gusts of 23-28 kts
are expected across the region today and tonight.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 256 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

It`s a broken record again this morning with another MCS plowing
across Oklahoma and the southern portions of the complex heading
for North Texas. An outflow boundary ahead of the system is on
track to arrive in our northwest counties around 400-430 am and
will likely continue moving southeast for the next few hours. This
outflow boundary has very strong winds behind it of 30-40 mph
(Childress recently gusted to 66 mph with the outflow!) which does
not seem to be affected by the strong southerly winds ahead of
it. Despite the strong winds along the outflow boundary, not much
new convection is being generated along it, and the strongest
storms are expected to remain north of the area. However, the
environment ahead of the complex is still favorable for some
storms to move into North Texas, and these storms could be strong
with a gusty wind and small hail threat. Mesoanalysis shows there
is still decent MUCAPE and shear across the area north of the Red
River. As the low level jet weakens in a few hours and shifts
southeast, the rain/convection in our area should mostly
dissipate and the boundary should stall. Where exactly it stalls
within our CWA is too difficult to tell at this time, but I
anticipate it will at least cross I-20 west of the DFW Metroplex.
For the remainder of the morning hours, isolated showers and
storms may develop near and north of the boundary as weak lift
occurs. The stalled outflow boundary will dissipate and/or lift
north later this morning.

The MCS this morning is being driven by a decent shortwave trough
entering the Plains. This trough will slowly continue moving
through the Plains with the base of the trough located just north
of our area. However, anticyclonic flow across the region should
result in slightly cooler temperatures in some locations, but it
will still be hot with highs in the 90s to around 101 degrees in
the west. Breezy winds will continue again today at 10 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Slightly elevated fire weather conditions
will be possible west of Highway 281 but minimum humidity values
are currently calculated to be around 30 percent. However, the
heat and winds will still make fire-fighting efforts challenging
for any ongoing fires ignited by lightning last night.

During the afternoon hours, a few showers and storms are expected
across Central Texas; the result of a weak disturbance in South
Texas spreading higher moisture north into the area. Forecast
soundings suggest tall skinny CAPE and weaker shear will yield
more summertime-like convection. Gusty winds and lightning will be
the main hazards with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated showers
and storms are possible this afternoon as we are temporarily
removed from the full suppression of an upper level ridge.

Overnight, another complex of storms is expected to develop in
Oklahoma, but the location of mesoscale boundaries will likely
drive where this development occurs. The latest hi-res guidance
is conglomerating around a favored area in eastern Oklahoma, but
some of this activity could stretch southwest into NW Texas. Will
maintain low PoPs across our northern counties late tonight.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018/
/Tuesday through Early Next Week/

The first 24 hours of the period will involve the Plains upper
low moving from Iowa eastward to the Great Lakes, shifting the
active weather east into the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
River Valleys. This will halt (at least for the time being) the
incessant barrage of MCSs which have plagued the Southern Plains
for the past week. For North and Central Texas, an upper ridge
has already made its presence known in the form of above-normal
temperatures and only sporadic opportunities for rain. The hot
conditions will continue, with afternoon highs ranging from the
mid and upper 90s east to low 100s west, but even the low-end rain
chances will decrease even further if not go completely away as
the ridge expands across the Plains.

The warmest day of the week will likely occur Wednesday or
Thursday when the ridge will be most dominant, with 500 MB
heights progged in the 592 to 594 DAM range. The center of the
ridge will shift east into the Ohio Valley Thursday night and
Friday, shifting the oppressive heat to the eastern third of the
CONUS Friday through the weekend (it will still be hot here but
perhaps a bit more tolerable).

The eastward shift of the ridge axis will occur in conjunction
with the development of an upper trough along the West Coast and
its slow eastward movement toward the Rockies. For West Texas, a
wet weather pattern will be the result for the upcoming weekend.
Unfortunately, the trough will dampen as it continues east into
the Plains late this weekend and early the following week,
decreasing the potential for precipitation the farther east the
system gets. Some low chances for showers and storms were added
across our northwest counties on Sunday when it will be possible
for some of the West and Northwest Texas convection to reach the
area.

By next Monday, there is some potential for a more active
seabreeze based on model projections of a weak disturbance
rounding the southwest flank of the ridge centered over the
eastern CONUS. Will keep expectations tempered at this time, but
increased POPs may need to be added for early next week if models
continue to lock on to this feature. Otherwise typical hot and
steamy summer weather can be expected as we head into July.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  80  97  79  99 /  10  10   5   0   5
Waco                95  81  98  76  99 /  30  10   5   0   5
Paris               94  76  94  76  96 /  20  20   5   0   5
Denton              96  78  98  78  99 /  10  10   5   0   5
McKinney            95  79  96  77  98 /  10  10   5   0   5
Dallas              96  81  99  80 100 /  10  10   5   0   5
Terrell             95  79  98  77  98 /  20  10   5   0   5
Corsicana           94  79  95  75  98 /  30  10   5   0   5
Temple              93  77  97  75  97 /  30  10  10   0  10
Mineral Wells       97  77  99  76 101 /  10  10   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion