Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 252044
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018


.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
As a shortwave exits the region the elevated convection across
the southeastern zones will come to an end. Still a few showers
will be possible before 8 pm and will carry some low PoPs in
these zones. Otherwise a quiet and tranquil evening is expected
for the remainder of the region. The main weather concern will be
the potential for fog overnight as low level moisture remains and
light easterly winds actually result in weak moisture advection.
A mix of fog and low clouds should develop after midnight across
the eastern and southeastern zones and push/develop westward.
Have included a mention of fog for all but the far western zones.
The most likely region for any dense fog will be where moisture
depth is in the Goldilocks zone of not too shallow but also not
so deep that it results in low cloud development. This zone looks
to occur along and just west of I-35 from south of the DFW
Metroplex into Central Texas. Obviously confidence in the coverage
and area of dense fog is low at this time so no advisory will be
issued now, but this will be monitored through the night. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the drier air and
clear skies of the western zones to the upper 40s across the
southeastern zones where dewpoints will remain high and low clouds
will limit radiational cooling.

Fog and low clouds will gradually burn off during the day Monday,
but it is possible a few areas that start out foggy will stay
cloudy well into the afternoon hours. This makes the high
temperatures difficult to forecast with any confidence, but in
general, most of the region will reach the mid to upper 60s. Light
east and southeast winds will continue.

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Sunday/
Medium range model solutions giving additional confidence in the
next round of thunderstorm chances returning to North and Central
Texas late Tuesday and into Wednesday. By Tuesday afternoon, the
GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS ensemble mean all show the next low
pressure system in southern California, all of which showing
similar strength. As the upper low moves east, it is expected to
eject eastward, affecting our part of the world late Tuesday and
Wednesday. There are some differences in the details as to where
boundaries are going to be...and exactly how much instability
will be available for thunderstorms or the potential for severe
weather. What is known is there should be plenty of moisture,
instability, and lift for yet another round of rainfall. This one,
at least, is not expected to stick around for several days.

After this mid week system moves across the area, things will once
again quiet down, just in time to turn the calendar to March.
March should have a nice couple of days, before rain chances once
again increase late in the weekend. Temperatures over the next
week or so will be relatively pleasant, with highs on Tuesday in
the 70s. Wednesday`s cold front and rain potential will drop
temperatures back into the 60s, where highs will stay through the
weekend.

Fox

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1239 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/
VFR will prevail through the evening hours, but the potential for
fog and/or low CIGs will exist late tonight and into Monday
morning. This part of the forecast is most difficult, as the
amount of low level moisture available is not something the models
agree on right now. Have sided with RAP/Nam which suggest
moisture depth may be great enough for mainly IFR CIGs, but still
have included a mention of IFR VSBY. Believe that the prospect
for dense fog or VLIFR conditions is low at this time, but this
will need to be monitored closely. With the data from the 0z
balloon we should get a better idea of this potential. For now the
primary window for IFR conditions is from 10-15z with improvement
to MVFR expected by late morning and VFR by afternoon. Otherwise
southeast winds at 5-10kt this afternoon will become light
northeast overnight.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  66  47  62  56 /   0   5  10  60  60
Waco                45  66  48  66  57 /   5   5  10  60  50
Paris               40  64  43  60  53 /   0   5  10  60  70
Denton              41  65  45  62  54 /   0   5  10  60  60
McKinney            42  63  45  61  54 /   0   5  10  60  70
Dallas              44  66  47  62  57 /   0   5  10  60  60
Terrell             43  66  46  63  55 /   5   5  10  60  60
Corsicana           48  66  48  64  57 /  10   5  10  60  50
Temple              44  68  49  67  59 /  10   5  10  50  40
Mineral Wells       39  64  44  63  53 /   0   5  10  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/92

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion