Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 270454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

/12Z TAFs/

A precipitation free 24-30 hour period is expected across North
and Central Texas TAF locations as a surface ridge of high
pressure inches closer to the region. This will prevent a repeat
of the last several days where showers and thunderstorms have been
observed around area airports.

The main concern will be ceilings heights early Thursday morning
as low level moisture increases and a shroud of low clouds covers
mainly the Central Texas sky. MVFR CIGs continue to be in the
forecast for Waco from 10-15Z before the cloud heights increase
with diurnal low level mixing.

For North Texas, the probability and confidence of MVFR is still
low, therefore, did not include any ceiling restrictions. This
will continue to be closely analyzed through the early morning
hours and may be added if it appears the MVFR deck will be more
expansive. Southerly winds will continue through the period,
generally remaining below 10 kts.



.DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/
/Tonight through Wednesday/

If there was such a thing as a "classic" June upper level pattern
for North/Central Texas (spoiler: there ISN`T one), we`d have one
forming over us. While we`ll have opportunities for diurnal convection
over some of the upcoming days through next week, the coverage
and intensity of precipitation appears modest and consistent with
a summertime regime. In addition, temperatures both day and night
will run quite close to seasonal norms for late June. No blood
boiling heat waves loom on the horizon, and we can be thankful
for this.


Convective development over North Central Texas has been sparse
through mid afternoon, despite the presence of decent mixed layer
CAPE and a weak upper level trough axis draped over the central
and northeast portions of the state. However, seabreeze-induced
shower/thunderstorm activity is racing northward out of Southeast
TX, and this convection should hold together sufficiently to
provide scattered rainfall amounts to areas south of a Lampasas-
Waco-Athens line through early evening. Farther north, believe
weak capping/subsidence on the backside of the aforementioned
trough may be sufficient to preclude much, if any, convection
through evening/overnight.


An axis of robust mid-level ridging will develop quickly from
Chihuahua State, northeastward into Kansas Thursday into Friday.
Subsidence on the eastern flank of this feature should effectively
shut down convection across our region both days, with the
possible exception of isolated activity over our far
east/southeast zones. This kind of pattern would auger well for
a nice daytime temperature jump, and I do think our highs will climb
into the 90-95 degree range (warmest west). These increases may
be underdone a tad, though the model guidance envelope is actually
pretty narrow. This lends confidence in holding daytime temps at
or below 95 (instead of approaching 100). The relatively moist
soil conditions may be restraining our daily sensible heat flux
a bit right now.

Saturday through Wednesday...

By Saturday/Sunday/Monday, the aformentioned mid-level ridge will
drift into the Rockies/Central Plains, with a pronounced inverted
trough (or perhaps even a closed low) moving westward from the
Gulf states into Texas in its place. This trough will lose
definition by early next week, but the models do maintain a
general weakness in the height fields through Wednesday. Trends
associated with this pattern evolution include increased
cloudiness, slightly cooler daytime highs, and an increase in
precipitation coverage. Didn`t go too overboard with the PoPs in
these out periods, as the models haven`t latched onto any major
rain bombs yet. However, did build scattered categories westward
across the area through the Monday/Wednesday timeframe...and
these may need to be raised in the days ahead.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  73  93  72 /  20   0   0   0   5
Waco                71  90  71  93  70 /  20   0   0   0   5
Paris               70  89  70  89  69 /  20   0   5  20  10
Denton              72  91  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   5   5
McKinney            71  90  72  92  71 /  20   0   0   5   5
Dallas              74  92  73  93  72 /  20   0   0   0   5
Terrell             72  89  71  93  71 /  20   0   0   5   5
Corsicana           71  89  70  90  69 /  20  10   0   0   5
Temple              70  90  70  91  69 /  20  10   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       69  90  70  93  69 /  10   0   0   0   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion