Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
000
FXUS64 KFWD 251058
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major adjustments on the forecast through tomorrow as timing
and areas of potential strong to sever storms remains static.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
/End Of The Week/
The Southern Plains upper ridge remains entrenched across the
forecast area through this evening, thus providing continued
subsidence and maintaining the elevated mixed layer based at lower
levels. Another surge of morning low clouds will overtake most,
if not all the entire region with extensive moisture above 500mb
and high clouds this afternoon thanks to an impulse traversing the
ridge. This will keep any legitimate convection and rainfall
deflected to the north and northeast of the area. Spotty morning
sprinkles that may dot your windshield are certainly possible
considering the moisture depth below the slow-rising elevated
mixed layer (capping inversion. The multiple layers of
moisture/clouds will also inhibit the better late April insolation
and keep highs contained in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
A tight pressure gradient and eventual mixing later this morning
will result in breezy conditions as southerly winds increase to
between 15 and 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Very gusty
southerly winds will continue into the overnight hours as surface
temperatures only fall to between 65 and 70 degrees and help to
keep the surface somewhat coupled with the LLJ.
A substantial shortwave disturbance is forecast to lift across
the Central/Southern High Plans and western Oklahoma/Northwest
Texas during the pre-dawn hours Friday. This will draw a Pacific
cold front containing mP/mT airmass eastward into our Big Country
counties on Friday. The right entrance region of a N to
S-oriented, 90-110 kt upper jet, with 70 kts lower at 500mb will
add increasing ageostrophic ascent to the already ongoing lift
from the mid level impulse and ongoing warm advection with very
moist and conditionally unstable lower levels available within the
broad warm sector. All these factors will easily overcome any
residual elevated/weak cap with strong to severe storms rapidly
initializing along the approaching cold front across Northwest
Texas into the South Plains overnight. Very steep mid level lapse
rates > 8 deg C/km and MLCAPE of 2000 J/KG+ will juxtapose with
with westerly 40-50 kt effective shear for all modes of severe
weather, including tornadoes during the discrete stages mostly
west/northwest of the forecast area. Afterward, large hail and
damaging winds are the primary impacts as the convective system
becomes more linear. The eventual evolution linear mode along the
front will definitely wake a few folks up Friday morning. Despite
the more linear storm mode, a few supercells embedded within the
line will pose localized tornado threat.
The Pacific cold front stalls along or just west of the Hwy 281
corridor later Friday morning, as it loses upper support with the
initial and strong shortwave. This will result in a gradual
weakening trends and lowering severe threat with any convection
that maintains eastward past I-35 and into the midday and early
afternoon hours. Hail, gusty outflow winds, and locally heavy
rainfall and minor flooding will still be problematic into early
Friday afternoon. Earlier clearing will bring steamy and humid
conditions Friday afternoon across the areas along and west of
US-281 with highs 85 to 90 degrees, while the clouds, rain, and
storms linger longer further east with much of Central and East
Texas only warming into the mid-upper 70s with continued gusty
southerly winds.
05/Marty
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/
Weather Headlines:
- Severe thunderstorm chance will continue Saturday and Sunday.
Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be
possible.
- There will be a risk of flash flooding Saturday night mainly
along the Red River. The threat shifts into East Texas on Sunday
- Windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon with gusts
approaching 45 mph in some locations. A Wind Advisory appears
likely.
- Not everyone will see thunderstorms this weekend. Southeast
Texas may see the lowest thunderstorm coverage.
With the mid-week ridge moving out and troughing setting up
across the western CONUS, North and Central Texas is in store for
an active weekend with multiple rounds of storms expected. The key
players this weekend will be timing the individual impulses and
placement of a meandering front/dryline that will set up across
North and Central Texas.
Strong southerly flow will commence on Friday as strong lee
cyclogenesis takes place while high pressure strengthens across
the mid-Atlantic coastline. This will effectively funnel a decent
amount of moisture north/northeastward from Texas into the Great
Lakes.
As the main upper trough inches closer to our region, we`ll see
increasing rain chances starting Friday night. The boundary
overnight will likely be west of our region, however, given the
unstable environment, a few showers or isolated storms will be
possible primarily west and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex. A stout capping inversion is likely to preclude severe
weather, however, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out closer
to sunrise Saturday.
Any morning rain will have the potential to impact afternoon
storm chances. If morning convection remains at a minimum, there
will be largely untapped warm sector for severe thunderstorms to
develop. The environment atop North and Central Texas will be
characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE as lapse rates steepen
to ~8C/km. With the low-level jet expected to strengthen, there
may be an increasing risk for supercell development capable of
producing a tornado or two. The exact area of heightened threat
remains uncertain at this time given the uncertainty in morning
rain and placement of the front.
As we approach Saturday night, increasing moisture transport into
our region coupled with enhanced upper level forcing for ascent
will lead to a heavy rain potential across North Texas. The
highest threat will be along the immediate Red River Valley, where
training of thunderstorms is looking most likely. Unidirectional
flow parallel to a stalled/slow moving front may lead to 3+ inches
of rain in a short amount of time. The highest amounts are likely
to remain in Oklahoma, however, we`ll need to monitor trends for
any potential southward shift in the heaviest expected rainfall
amounts.
The front will make slow eastward progress through the day on
Sunday with a continued heavy rain threat. The risk for flooding
will shift into East Texas as slightly dryer air overspreads areas
along and west of I-35. The severe weather threat will also
continue on Sunday, generally east of I-35. MLCAPE of nearly 2000
J/kg will continue, however, a slight weakness in the low-level
winds will decrease the effective shear. Nonetheless, this could
make for a messy set-up with a few storms posing a large hail and
damaging wind threat.
The main upper trough will be atop our region of Monday, keeping
precipitation storm chances going through the day. Plenty of
instability will be at play with a continued threat for some
strong to severe thunderstorms. Thermodynamic environment will
remain favorable for large hail and damaging winds.
Timing/location will depend on the placement of the stalled front,
therefore, expect more clarity in the coming days.
Weak ridging aloft will move overhead Tuesday into Wednesday,
leading to temporary reprieve from the daily storm chances.
Unfortunately, the next system will be arriving on Thursday with
rain chances coming back into the forecast to finish out next work
week.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12z TAFs/
Just minor timing tweaks for MVFR cigs, as these are already
encroaching on the I-20 corridor and D10 DFW airports with Waco
Regional already in high MVFR. It appears IFR is less likely for
all airports, so will be removing that from Waco later this
morning. Cigs rise into low VFR briefly by 00z Friday with MVFR
cigs returning before midnight Friday.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/
Challenges remain similar to Wednesday. Gauging both speed and
gusts with southerly winds which should be increasing after 12z
this morning. No doubt we`ll get MVFR across the D10 and DFW
airports, it`s the timing that still differs amongst high-res
models. The GLAMP/GFS remains the most aggressive on bringing MVFR
into the D10 airports by 10z, while the NAM is 12z, and the
RAP/HRRR delay arrival until close to mid morning.
I will take the "middle road" timing here and lean toward the NAM
with high MVFR cigs arriving across the DFW Metro at 12z, with a
fall into low MVFR by mid morning. Waco Regional Airport should
see an arrival 1-2 hours earlier, along with a window of IFR cigs
occurring through late morning. Warmer surface temperatures here
across DFW should keep cigs out of IFR, though AFW/FTW/GKY
will be on the fence for a 1-2 hour TEMPO group around mid morning.
Cigs rise into high MVFR (=> 2 kft) during the early afternoon
hours, then into low VFR for a few hours either side of 00z
Friday. As the 925mb LLJ cranks up after 03z Friday, cigs will
likely thicken and fall into low MVFR just before midnight. S winds
will continue AoB 10 kts through sunrise before increasing to between
15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts mid-late morning and through this
coming evening.
05/Marty
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 70 81 70 82 / 5 60 80 10 50
Waco 81 69 79 69 82 / 10 20 70 10 20
Paris 79 68 75 67 82 / 20 30 90 30 50
Denton 78 68 82 68 81 / 10 60 70 5 60
McKinney 78 68 80 69 82 / 10 50 80 10 50
Dallas 80 70 81 69 83 / 5 50 80 10 50
Terrell 79 69 78 69 83 / 5 30 90 20 40
Corsicana 81 70 79 71 84 / 5 20 70 20 20
Temple 81 69 78 69 83 / 10 10 60 10 20
Mineral Wells 80 67 85 68 81 / 10 80 50 5 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
