Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 252304
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
604 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

An upper ridge continues to build in from the west as yesterday`s
upper level system heads for the East Coast. The resulting
subsidence is providing quiet aviation weather across the region.
At the surface, north to northwest winds around 10 kt will
persist overnight behind a cold front. Winds will veer to the
northeast Friday morning, then to the southeast Friday afternoon
as the post-frontal surface ridge shifts east of the area.
Otherwise, VFR is expected at all locations through the end of
the forecast period.

30

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Rather quiet weather is expected through tonight. Occasionally
breezy northwesterly winds will relax this evening as boundary-layer
mixing weakens. However, a weak passing front may briefly boost
north/northwesterly winds prior to midnight. Regardless, winds
should generally remain around 10 mph or less. Any diurnal low-level
cumulus will dissipate as well, yielding mostly clear skies. Low
temperatures will fall into the 50s across most of North and
Central Texas.

Picca

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/
/Through Next Week/

The extended forecast presents a series of forecast challenges,
including the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Unfortunately, the spatiotemporal details of much of this
potential remain rather unclear, given the complexity of the
upcoming synoptic pattern next week. So the main message is that
you should continue to stay fresh on your severe-weather and flood
safety plans this weekend into next week.

Before any potential showers/storms, tomorrow will feature dry
conditions with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Zonal
flow aloft will push a surface ridge towards the central/eastern
Gulf Coast, placing Texas under a return flow regime by Friday
night into Saturday. As low-level moisture slowly advances
northward Saturday, surface-based buoyancy will build, especially
near the Red River where sheltered moisture near a stalling front
may enhance CAPE some. Weak/nebulous large-scale ascent and
considerable dry air aloft will likely limit any convective
development through much of the day. However, a re-invigoration
of a southwesterly 850mb jet and convergence extending along the
front towards a weak triple point (likely over the Big Country)
may be sufficient for a few showers and storms by Saturday evening
into the overnight. Any deeper, sustained convection could be
capable of isolated large hail or damaging gusts, but this threat
still appears fairly conditional due to only modest return
moisture initially.

Any such convection likely lifts north away from our area with
the front on Sunday, ending our rain chances. Skies should also
improve, except for passing upper-level cloudcover.

The pattern becomes more convoluted by Monday night into the
middle of next week (if not beyond). The region will be under the
influence of broad southwesterly flow aloft, characterized by
subtle, embedded shortwave troughs. Given continued return flow
pumping richer moisture northward across the region, the
thermodynamic environment should become more favorable for
convection during the first half of the week. Meanwhile, passing
disturbances in zonal flow to our north (combined with diabatic
cooling from rounds of precip over the Plains) will drive a front
southward. Ascent/convergence near this front should focus several
rounds of convection over the southern Plains, initially starting
Monday night and persisting through at least Wednesday. Given the
presence of favorable moisture, shear, and instability, at least
some severe weather is likely to be realized, primarily Tuesday
into Wednesday. The details remain rather unclear, though, owing
to the complexity of both the mid-level and surface pattern.

Thereafter, I wish I could say with much confidence that the
weather will clear out / quiet down, but more disturbances in
west/southwest flow atop favorable boundary-layer moisture should
keep rain/thunderstorm chances across our area into the latter
half of the week. Given multiple rounds of potentially heavy,
convective rainfall, it is probable that some parts of the
southern Plains will face flash- flooding concerns again next
week.

Picca

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  76  58  83  63 /   0   0   0   5  20
Waco                55  75  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               53  75  55  78  60 /   0   0   0   5  40
Denton              53  74  57  83  61 /   0   0   0   5  30
McKinney            53  75  57  81  60 /   0   0   0   5  30
Dallas              57  77  60  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  20
Terrell             53  75  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           55  75  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              55  76  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       53  75  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/91

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion