Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 040758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
258 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/
/Overnight through Sunday/

With the center of the mid level ridge axis to our west through
the remainder of the holiday weekend, we`ll continue to see
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, generally across
the eastern half of the CWA where better moisture will be. The
remainder of tonight should be precipitation free, although we`ll
be watching a cluster of thunderstorms moving south through
Oklahoma. These may approach the Red River by morning. Otherwise,
a fairly stout westward moving outflow boundary moved through the
Metroplex earlier and temperatures have cooled into the lower 70s
across our eastern counties, while mid/upper 70s continue

Saturday`s thunderstorm chances will largely be dependent upon a
slowly southward moving frontal boundary which is currently across
central Oklahoma into central Arkansas. This boundary has been
quasi-stationary but should get a little southward push aided by
convection and a weak disturbance moving through the Southern
Plains. Some scattered activity left over from overnight
thunderstorms may spread across the Red River during the morning
hours, but a greater coverage of storms is expected again during
the late afternoon/evening. We`ll keep PoPs generally confined to
areas along and east of I-35 ranging from 20% in the Metroplex to
40% across our eastern counties.

A persistent pool of moisture and lack of subsidence should allow
for additional scattered thunderstorms mainly across our eastern
counties again on Sunday afternoon.

High temperatures will top out in the upper 90s to 100 degrees
again today in many locations with cooler readings across our
eastern counties. We should see highs a few degrees cooler on
Sunday as that weak front tries to push westward. It should be
accompanied by an increase in cloud cover as well.



/Sunday night through Late Next Week/

The active weather pattern will continue through the middle of next
week as the upper ridge remains well to our west. This implies that
we will have afternoon rain/storm chances mainly across the eastern
half of the area each day, and the possibility of overnight decaying
convection moving southward from Oklahoma into the northwest & Red
River counties. Beyond mid-week, expect dry conditions for the
entire region, with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 90s
to near 100 degrees.

Sunday night: A few showers/storms may linger into the evening hours
as they exit our far eastern counties. The rest of the night looks
warm (with lows in the mid 70s) and fairly quiet for most locations.
However, with northwest flow in place, there is a chance that a
decaying thunderstorm complex will move across our northwestern and
Red River counties during the overnight and early Monday morning

Monday afternoon storm chances will be again confined across the
eastern and southeastern counties where the best moisture will be.
A weak frontal boundary is expected to become stationary
somewhere between the I-20 and Central TX, and may trigger a few
showers/storms across this area into the evening hours. Some of
the short-range models are suggesting another complex of storms
moving from the northwest Monday night into Tuesday morning, but
there is still some discrepancies on intensity and coverage. For
now, we kept 20-30% PoPs to account this possibility. These will
likely be adjusted as we get close to this time period.

Hot and humid conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with
another shot for afternoon scattered showers/storms mainly east
of the I-35 corridor. The best chances will be on Tuesday, as we
will continue to be influenced by an upper low across the OK/AR
border. Dry conditions are expected into the latter part of the
week as the upper ridge will build back over us. Increasing
temperatures are expected into the next weekend. Highs will likely
reach the upper 90s area-wide on Friday with a few locations
touching the 100 degree mark next Saturday.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with light southerly winds.
Localized outflow boundaries from afternoon showers and storms to
the east could result in temporary wind shifts through Saturday



Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  77  94  77  93 /  20  20  10  10  20
Waco               102  75  98  76  95 /   0   5   5  10  10
Paris               89  71  89  73  90 /  50  50  30  10  30
Denton              98  74  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  10  20
McKinney            96  74  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  10  20
Dallas              99  78  95  77  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
Terrell             98  75  94  74  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
Corsicana           99  76  95  76  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
Temple             101  74 100  76  95 /   0   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells      100  73  93  74  92 /   5   0   5  10  20





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion